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What the Bank has to weigh up

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Posted 03 November 2008 @ 07:33 am GMT

The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates to 4 percent or below from 4.5 percent on Thursday due to the bad economic outlook.

Policymakers' belief that inflation has probably peaked after hitting a 16-year high of 5.2 percent in September is also making it likely that rates will be cut.

A Reuters poll published on October 30 showed that all 62 financial industry economists polled expected the Bank to cut rates by at least half a percentage point.

Below are a range of points likely to feature in the Monetary Policy Committee's discussions.

FINANCIAL MARKET CRISIS

Since the Bank cut rates by 50 basis points in emergency joint action with other major world central banks on October 8, the United States and European governments have followed government plans to recapitalise leading national banks.

Global share prices continued to fall in the aftermath, and the FTSE 100 index hit a five-year low, though it has since recovered to be just 2 percent down on levels after last month's rate cut.

But the pound has suffered since investors fled for the relative safe haven of the U.S. dollar, dropping 6 percent to $1.62.

INFLATION

Consumer price inflation rose more than expected to 5.2 percent in September, more than double the Bank's 2 percent target, but MPC members have said they expect it to fall, given that oil prices have more than halved since July and rising unemployment appears to be keeping wage rises in check.

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