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Will China break the Japan mould after Rio deal?



13 February 2009 @ 08:30 am BST

With a single 13 billion pound deal, China will acquire a sizeable chunk of the raw materials it needs to grow its economy, and state-owned Chinalco grows from a provincial powerhouse to a diversified global player.


A girl waves a national flag in front of a portrait of former Chinese leader Mao Zedong at the Tiananmen Gate in Beijing October 1, 2006. REUTERS/Stringer
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For some, that rang alarm bells over the risk of China Inc. holding sway over the world's second-largest mining house at a time when it is fast becoming the firm's biggest customer.

But if Japan's precedent set four decades ago is any guide, one thing Thursday's deal won't guarantee is cheaper prices for the copper, iron ore and bauxite it needs to grow its economy.

The question now, say some analysts, is whether China sticks with the Japanese model or seeks to break the mould, becoming a much more powerful force on the global stage.

In the deal, which still requires regulatory approval, Chinalco will pay 5.1 billion pounds to potentially double its share stake in Rio Tinto to 18 percent and another 8.7 billion pounds to buy minority stakes in a suite of assets, including its biggest iron ore mine, which already sells half its output to China.

For full details of the assets click on:

Wrapped in the veneer of a corporate deal that gives Chinalco an upstream presence and will help Rio pay down its whopping debt burden, the political significance is clear as the world's biggest minerals consumer seeks to secure industrial growth.

"If anything it's a supply issue. China's got the growth potential going forward and that means keeping raw materials coming in," said DJ Carmichael & Co analyst James Wilson.

It's a strategy pursued most clearly by China's oil companies since five years ago and more recently by smaller-scale investments in the mining sector, particularly in Australia.

As China enters into bigger deals, its precedent stretches back to Japan's investment of the 1960s in Australian iron ore and coal mines, in deals that initially raised questions about national sovereignty before being accepted as business as usual, at a time when Japan's post-war economy was booming.

Copyright 2009 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.

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