Australia predicts El Nino "very likely" in 2009

LITTLE CHANCE OF AVOIDING EL NINO

The bureau's latest report found that the eastern Pacific Ocean was continuing to warm, with sea temperatures one degree Celsius above normal, and trade winds were continuing to weaken.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), calculated from monthly and seasonal fluctuations in air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin, remained at around negative 2, while the monthly value for May was negative 5.

A sustained negative SOI often indicates El Nino.

In its last two reports, the bureau said the odds of an El Nino forming were above 50 percent, which was more than double the normal risk of the event.

"The shift towards El Nino is certainly continuing and its got some significant momentum," said Jones.

The chances of an El Nino were now so great that percent odds were irrelevant, he said, adding if an El Nino was declared soon then officials will probably agree that it started in May.

"El Nino is a little bit like recession, you are in it before you can say you have one. If it continues as it is now, the historians will say the El Nino started in May," said Jones.

The Climate Prediction Centre in the United States said in June that conditions were favourable for a switch to El Nino conditions during June to August.

(Editing by James Thornhill)