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Kraft results to trigger Cadbury deal countdown



By Brad Dorfman
02 November 2009 @ 04:18 pm BST


A bar of Cadbury Fruit and Nut chocolate moves along the production line of the Bournville factory in Birmingham
A bar of Cadbury Fruit and Nut chocolate moves along the production line of the Bournville factory in Birmingham, October 7, 2008.
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Industry analysts said Kraft may need to offer as much as 850 pence to 900 pence to seal a deal, particularly if it needs to fend off interest from rivals like Hershey or Nestle .

But hopes of much higher offers have waned in the last week as Hershey and Nestle remain silent on any potential interest.

Since then, the premium built into Cadbury shares has shrunk to about 5.4 percent and some of its investors say Kraft could succeed with an offer closer to 820 pence.

Cadbury shares closed at 773.36 pence on Thursday, while the Kraft offer is currently valued at 731.2 pence.

Rosenfeld still must show Cadbury's shareholders that Kraft has the growth prospects to make its shares worthwhile in her biggest gambit since taking the CEO role in 2006. Cadbury Chairman Roger Carr dubbed Kraft a "low growth conglomerate" in his letter to Rosenfeld rejecting the initial offer.

She also needs to impress upon Kraft shareholders that the company can post solid returns on its own if it does not acquire Cadbury and its faster-growing confectionery business, which includes expansion in emerging markets like India.

"A lot of it, frankly, is going to be posturing and showing confidence in the fact that they can be a growth-geared company and not this stigma that some people are putting on them of being a low-growth conglomerate company," said Edward Jones analyst Matthew Arnold.

(Additional reporting by Victoria Howley in London and Jessica Hall in Philadelphia; Editing by Michele Gershberg and Matthew Lewis)

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