Kraft in waiting game over Cadbury

"We expect they will raise around 800 pence either from the Kraft offer being formalised or from the standalone value if the approach is unsuccessful," said analyst Alex Smith at Nomura, who sees a standalone fair value at 777 pence.

The most bullish estimates put forward early in the bidding saga suggested Kraft would pay around 9 pounds a share, while some of the latest views put a maximum bid price at 8 pounds.

Martin Deboo at Investec Securities believes Kraft will only be willing to pay 800 pence. Rosenfeld cautioned this week that she will not overpay for Cadbury and Deboo said the probability of a successful Kraft bid has fallen.

There is now a 40 percent chance of staying independent as against 20 percent earlier, he said.

Pablo Zuanic at JP Morgan doubts Kraft will go above 780p, but both expect Kraft to push up the cash component of its offer to 50 percent or above, from the original 40 percent cash and 60 percent in new Kraft shares weighting, to win Cadbury.

This appeared to match Cadbury Chairman Roger Carr's description of Kraft as a "low-growth conglomerate business model," in his September letter to Rosenfeld, when he reiterated why Cadbury was rejecting Kraft's approach.

(Editing by Simon Jessop)