Seasonal flu may hit Europe after H1N1 - experts

The Sweden-based European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said epidemics of H1N1, known as swine flu, were now affecting almost all countries in the European Union but it could not predict how intense the peaks would be.

What was certain, it said, was that the pandemic would continue to kill thousands and put many patients into intensive care as the northern hemisphere's winter sets in.

"All European countries will be affected, and this will put considerable stress on healthcare systems," said ECDC director Zsuzsanna Jakab.

The ECDC, which monitors disease in the European Union and European free trade area (EFTA), said it was hard to predict what the mix of pandemic and seasonal flu viruses would bring but there was a risk of seasonal flu epidemics "early in 2010 when the pandemic waves have passed."

Angus Nicoll, the ECDC's flu coordinator, said in non-pandemic situations, seasonal flu could kill up to 40,000 people in Europe -- and H1N1 could do the same.

"That is not a trivial number," he said. "And the fact that H1N1 is happening in younger adults, pregnant women and people without risk factors ... makes it feel different."

RISKS AND DEATHS

The ECDC said experience from the United States and the southern hemisphere showed pregnant women with the virus are 10 times more likely to need intensive care than those with no risk factors. Those with asthma and chronic respiratory diseases have three times the risk and the very obese six times the risk.

But it also said evidence so far shows some 20 to 30 percent of H1N1 deaths are among healthy young people.