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Galvan Chartbreaker - TESCO CASH GENERATOR (397p) - 20th April 2011

By Ed Woolfitt | 20 April 2011, 10:25 BST

Ed Woolfitt, Head of Trading at Galvan

Ed Woolfitt, Head of Trading at Galvan

Today supermarket giant Tesco said that pre-tax profits had climbed by 11.3% from the same period a year ago to £3.53bn, on sales up by 8.1% to £67.57bn. However, Tesco said it had not met its planned growth for the year, which was "only partly attributable to the deterioration in the consumer environment during the second half." Internationally, Asian sales were up by 9.7% at constant exchange rates to £11.02bn, Europe sales grew 7.4% to £10.56bn and sales in the US were up by 38.1%, though its California-focused Fresh & Easy chain saw losses increase. "A generally improving global economic environment provides a helpful background for Tesco in most of our markets in Asia and Europe as well as in the United States."

The latest results from grocer Tesco serve to illustrate the sheer scale of this immense international cash generating machine. Any disappointment on group-wide growth has to be viewed in context against the international trend, especially as the rate of growth in Asia has more than offset losses closer to home. For Galvan Research, this is more than enough to back the not inconsiderable buy argument.

While Tesco shares have been largely rangebound either side of the 400p level in recent months, the March bear trap below 370p and subsequent rebound suggests that while above the 20 day moving average at 393p the stock will return to the last January / February resistance zone through 315p.

Dream Scenario The rate of Asian sales growth covers any domestic growth concerns. Stock Tesco
Nightmare Scenario The market takes the view that some of the UK growth issues are not entirely to do with the consumer downturn. Epic Code TSCO
Price Target 415p Year High 454p
Stop Loss 385p Year Low 377p

Galvan Research And Trading Ltd are multi-award winning advisory CFD brokers.

Winners of Best Equity Derivatives Advisor for 2005-2009 at the Shares Magazine awards and Best CFD Advisor at the Money AM awards 2008-2009

IMPORTANT NOTES: This report is distributed by Brand Communications, and prepared by Galvan Research And Trading Ltd, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA). Whilst every attempt is made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, no responsibility can be accepted for any inaccuracy. The information provided cannot be relied upon as constituting a recommendation, nor construed as any offer to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to buy investments. No liability is accepted for any loss whether direct or indirect, incidental or consequential, arising out of any of the information being untrue and / or inaccurate, except to the extent caused by the wilful default or gross negligence of Galvan Research And Trading, its employees, or which arises under the Financial Services And Markets Act 2000.

Galvan Research And Trading Ltd, CMA House, Newham Road, Truro, Cornwall, TR1 2SU, +44 (0) 1872 262622

Source: Galvan Research and Trading

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