Gold Fundamental Analysis February 13, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could effect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements-including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold's high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.

These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold's role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.

Like us on Facebook

Gold Fundamental Analysis February 13, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold closed down just under 1% at 1725.30 falling on worries from Greece, as did most of the global markets. The USD was up today on concerns overlooking lackluster economic data on trade balances and consumer confidence. Investors ignored news that the US exchange cut future margin requirements on gold.

It seems like anytime that Fed Reserve Bernanke speaks gold moves. Perhaps it would be best to develop a Fed Trading Strategy.

Investors are concerned with the future of Greece, this maybe the end, as it may not be possible to for Greece to find cuts deep enough to make up for the current increase in deficits as it continues to increase.

The US budget deficit for January came in under budget, almost half of January 2011.

Review of Tuesday's Economic Reports

00:01	GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY)	-0.3%	-0.8%	2.2%
03:30	AUD	Interest Rate Decision	4.25%	4.00%	4.25%
03:30	AUD	RBA Rate Statement
05:00	JPY	Leading Index	94.3	93.8	93.7
07:45	EUR	French Trade Balance	-5.0B	-5.3B	-4.1B
08:00	TWD	Taiwanese Trade Balance	0.42B	2.10B	2.31B
11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production	-2.9%	-0.1%	0.0%
11:30	CLP	Chilean Trade Balance	1.98B	1.15B	0.39B
13:30	CAD	Building Permits (MoM)	11.1%	0.8%	-2.6%
15:00	USD	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	49.4	48.3	47.5
16:30	USD	4-Week Bill Auction	0.060%		0.050%

Gold Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

Name	S3	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2	R3
Classic	1677.00	1690.65	1706.30	1719.95	1735.60	1749.25	1764.90
Fibonacci	1690.65	1701.84	1708.76	1719.95	1731.14	1738.06	1749.25
Camarilla	1713.89	1716.58	1719.26	1719.95	1724.64	1727.32	1730.01
Woodie's	-	1691.15	1707.30	1720.45	1736.60	1749.75	-
DeMark's	-	-	1727.78	1716.04	1698.48	-	-