USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis February 15, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

21:45     NZD       Core Retail Sales (QoQ)                               1.1%                      2.4%     

 21:45    NZD       Retail Sales (QoQ)                                           1.3%                      2.2%       

These reports are released together monthy measures the change of the Retail Sales in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level in New Zealand, excluding automobiles and gas stations. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered a pace indicator for New Zealand's economy. This report might push the NZD up, especially against a weakened dollar.. (Watch this one closely. It might be a good trade. Below forecast sell NZD immediately, above Buy NZD immediately )      

23:30     AUD       Westpac Consumer Sentiment                                                                 2.40%

The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index measures the change in the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. On the index, a level above 100.0 indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism. The data is compiled from a survey of about 1,200 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions.

05:00     JPY        BoJ Monthly Report

The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monthly report contains the statistical data that policymakers evaluate when setting interest rates. The report also provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's perspective

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis February 15, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )

USD/JPY was trading at 77.920 after responding to the surprise BoJ announcement of additonal monetary easing. The Bank of Japan said it will expand its asset-purchase program again by ¥10 trillion ($130 billion) and changed the wording of its price target following political pressure to strengthen its commitment to ending deflation. The BoJ central policy board said it will boost the size of its asset-purchase program, including low-cost loans - the main tool for easing credit amid near-zero interest rates up to ¥65 trillion from ¥55 trillion.

The pair responded immediately buy surging from the morning low of 77.369.

The pair should remain here until the US markets open, with a lot of economic data due in the US. Hopefully there will be no Greek surprises today.

Mondays weeks major economic reports actual v. forecast.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-24

Feb 14  09:30  Netherlands Eur 3.0bn-4.0bn Jan 2017 DSL

Feb 14  09:30  Spain  Eur 4.5-5.5bn 12 & 8M T-bill auction

Feb 14  10:10  Greece  Eur1.0bn 3M T-bill auctionFeb 14  10:10  Italy 

Eur 2.75-4bn 6% Nov 2014 BTPs & Eur 1-2bn 3% Nov 2015

& 4% Feb 2017 BTPs

Feb 14  10:30  Belgium  Eur 1.8bn May 2012 & Eur 1.2bn Feb 2013 T-bills

Feb 15  10:10  Sweden  Sek 10bn May 2012 T-bills

Feb 15  10:30  Portugal  Eur 1.5-2bn May & Aug 2012 and Feb 2013 T-bills

Feb 16  01.30  Japan  Auctions 5-year JGBs

Feb 16  09:30  Spain

Eur 3.0-4.0bn 4.4% Jan 2015, 4% Jul 2015 and 4.3% Oct

2019 Obligaciones

Feb 16  10.30  UK  Gbp 1.75bn 4.5% Sep 2034 conventional Gilt

Feb 16  09:50  France

Eur 7-8.5bn 3% Jul 2014, 2.5% Jan 2015 & new 1.75% Feb

2017 BTANs

Feb 16  10:50  France

Eur 1.3-1.8bn 1.1% Jul 2022 OATei, 2.1% Jul 2023 OATi &

1.85% Jul 2027 OATei

Feb 16  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb

22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23

Feb 16  18:00  US  Usd 9bn 30Y TIPS

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTPei

USD/JPY Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)