Asian Session Notes 8/06/12

USDCAD

Resistance: 1.0025 minor / 1.0050 strong / 1.0073 minor

Support: 1.0000 moderate / 0.9980 minor / 0.9953 minor

Loonie ended friday just above the psychological 1.0000 level though we managed to stay under parity for sometime following the NFP results. Daily indicators has stochastic point down poised to push under 20 while macd is also heading lower. At the moment we appeat to be seeing mixed intraday signals with 4H stochastic pointing up and macd heading lower. Hourly indicators has stochastic heading lower and macd pointing up. Look for a close below 1.0000 on an hourly basis to spark further Loonie strength.

EURAUD

Resistance: 1.1789 moderate / 1.1819 moderate / 1.1855 moderate

Support: 1.1736 moderate / 1.1701 minor / 1.1653 moderate

Surprisingly we saw a strong Euro as the eventual result of Friday’s NFP figure with European equities gaining the most compared with US stocks and commodity markets. This has allowed the EURAUD to spike up with Wellington market trying to get a follow through. Among indicators we currently have a stochastic poised to push overbought and macd’s heading up. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with 4-hour macd rising and stochastic overbought. Hourly indicators for their part has a bearish divergence in stochastic with macd beginning to top off. Immediate risk is for a resumption of the bear market on a close below 1.1736. Alternatively a rejection from 1.1819 the 21D EMA may also be seen as an entry.

AUDUSD

Resistance: 1.0578 moderate / 1.0634 strong / 1.0651 minor

Support: 1.0548 minor / 1.0525 moderate / 1.0495 minor

With the strong US NFP numbers we have the Aussy pushing higher though not quite managing new highs in the daily charts. At this point our big real body from Friday suggests the risk of an immediate pullback has been invalidated. Among indicators we have daily stochastic pushing back into overbought levels while macd is also heading up. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with a bearish divergence in stochastic and possible double top in the hourly charts as macd for the timeframe has also crossed lower. Fron the 4H picture macd is bullish and stochastic overbought. Immediate may call for a pullback to perhaps 1.0525 our moderate support area, however we prefer a buy on dips for an eventual push to 1.0634 a strong resistance level.

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.2440 moderate / 1.2500 minor / 1.2557 moderate

Support: 1.2391 minor / 1.2367 minor / 1.2330 moderate

We have EURUSD just under the neckline of an inverted head and shoulder though with the neckline rising opening the possibility of exhaustion at the breakout point. Among indicators we have an overbought stochastic while macd is also heading up. From the lower time frames we have mixed signals with stochastic in a bearish divergence and topping off from the hourly picture. This whil 4H indicators has stochastic overbought and macd pointing up. Note we have already tested the neckline and appear to be getting a rejection. A break of 1.2391 should be seen as a bearish entry for 1.2330 right around the 34D EMA. Note we view friday;s rally as mostly equity driven with European gains even sharper than that of the US despite the good numbers driving markets actually coming from the US.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.5683 moderate / 1.5727 minor / 1.5775 moderate

Support: 1.5615 moderate / 1.5576 minor / 1.5524 moderate

Friday’s bounce off the congestion floors has given us another higher lows reinforcing the idea of a bullish channel in the making, we need a new high to confirm this notion. Daily indicators has stochastic heading up though macd is flat. From the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys with the 4H stochastic overbought and macd crossing up, while hourly indicators has a new bullish cross in stochastic joining its rising macd. The preferred course of action is to look for a buy on dips to the 1.5615 support area for 1.5683 then on to 1.5727. A break of 1.5683 may also be seen as an entry though for limited upside.

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