In a very uneventful day for the Australian dollar investors have seemed unwilling to take the higher yielding asset above the somewhat stubborn area of 1.0560 against its US Counterpart. With investors keen to take a “wait and see” approach to the currency over the past 24 hours things are set to liven up today given the release of local unemployment figures due out at 11:30 am followed by a Chinese Inflationary reading which is also expected to increase volatility. Having traded to an overnight high of 1.0581, risk sentiment has dipped ever so slightly as hope continues to disappear that the ECB will commit to buying European Sovereign bonds, at least in the short term. Meanwhile this morning the Australian dollar opens overall unchanged, currently trading at 1.0569.
China, and the Euro-zone's GDP growth forecasts have been reduced to 8.2% (prior +8.5%) and -0.1% (prior 0.2%) respectively; whereas Germany, France and the US results were amended upwards.
We expect a range today of 1.0500 – 1.0610
New Zealand Dollar
In an overall flat day for New Zealand’s Dollar, the kiwi has remained range bound for much of the past 24 hours trading between a range of (0.8117 – 0.8162) against its US Counterpart. Despite global equities which have continued their impressive run overnight, another bout of disappointing European data in the form of German Industrial production as well as the ECB which continues to deal in solutions of the lowest common denominator have both hampered an attempted crack above the 82 US Cents level. Acting as a potential catalyst for a move higher Government figures are expected to show the jobless rate fall from 6.7 percent down to 6.5 percent this morning as the Kiwi opens flat currently buying 81.52 US Cents
We expect a range today of 0.8110 – 0.8200
Great British Pound:
Providing a steady platform for the Great British Pound overnight The Bank of England endorsed a continuation of their asset purchasing facility whilst also maintaining its current interest rate path. Whilst both growth and inflationary forecasts were cut there was a general feeling that Mervyn King will adopt a more neutral stance in the short-term as the Central Bank awaits the next move out of the ECB, as neighbouring Europe continues to weigh heavily on a potential rally in the Sterling. Gaining around one third of a cent against its US Counterpart the Sterling has managed to find some upside against the Greenback opening stronger this morning at 1.5655. Meanwhile on the cross rates the Sterling’s strength proved too much against both the Aussie (1.4806) and the Kiwi which both open stronger (1.9188)
We expect a range today of 1.4750 – 1.4850
Whilst the majority of G10 currencies remained range bound overnight, the Benchmark S&P 500 extended its four day rally up almost 10 percent from a five month low on June 1. In overnight happenings sentiment has taken a slight fall following wires that the ECB may not purchase government debt until the German Constitutional Court rules on the bailout fund which is set to take place on the 12th of September. If the ECB do intend on waiting, peripheral bond markets are likely to again start showing signs of stress sooner rather than later. Adding to the long list of European woes German Industrial Production figures declined in June by 0.9 percent led by a drop in construction output as the 17-nation Euro also fizzled against its US Counterpart. Trading as low as 1.2326 the shared unit opens this morning around 40 basis points lower at 1.2362. On the horizon today US Trade Balance figures as well as a handful of important releases out of China are likely to be the main driving force behind in any underlying currency movements.
NZD: Unemployment Rate
Core Machinery Orders m/m, Monetary Policy Statement, Overnight Call Rate
GBP: Trade Balance, CB Leading Index m/m
ECB Monthly Bulletin, Italian Trade Balance
Trade Balance, Unemployment Claims