Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and former New York Federal Reserve President Tim Geithner (now Treasury Secretary) take a walk for a photo opportunity during the Annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Aug. 22, 2008.
(Photo: Reuters / Bradly J. Boner)
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and former New York Federal Reserve President Tim Geithner (now Treasury Secretary) take a walk for a photo opportunity during the Annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Aug. 22, 2008.
The biggest event this week is Friday's Jackson Hole meeting. While this week's economic calendar is rather packed, Wall Street seems to care more about Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech at the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium.
Economists expect Bernanke to use his Aug. 31 speech to affirm the Fed's dovish bias, defend the usefulness of additional easing and offer more details on policy options.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will participate in a Jackson Hole panel on Sept. 1, five days before he chairs a meeting of his Governing Council at which investors seek details of a plan to defend the euro region from surging bond yields.
Draghi has already declared to do "whatever it takes to preserve the euro." Therefore, economists don't expect anything new from him or the European Central Bank until several events occur.
- FOLLOW IBTIMES
Preceding the late-week meeting, U.S. investors will get a gamut of data releases -- including home prices, a second revision to second-quarter gross domestic product, jobless claims and consumer confidence -- that will help to set the tone. Also, Fed's Beige Book is due Wednesday.
In Europe, aside from the data releases -- Germany IFO data and euro zone inflation data -- this week sees Spanish government discussions on the possible need for a bailout. Details of Spain's second-quarter GDP will also be released this week.
In emerging markets, investors will get rates decisions in Brazil, Israel and Hungary. On the data front, second-quarter GDP data will be released for Brazil, India and Poland.
Below are entries on the economic calendar Aug. 27-31. All listed times are EDT.
6:00 a.m. -- Chicago Fed President Charles Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks at an MNI Seminar in Hong Kong.
8:30 a.m. - The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index ticked up to 95.6 in July from 93.9 in June.
10:30 a.m. - The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index improved more than expected in August, from -13.2 to -1.6. Market consensus was pointing to -8.0.
12:15 p.m. -- Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto (FOMC voter) speaks at the Newark Area Business Luncheon at the Newark Metropolitan Hotel. She will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy.
UK -- Public holiday
E17 -- ECB Executive board member Joerg Asmussen speaks on the way to a more stable economic and monetary union in Germany.
Sweden - July retail sales.
Germany - IFO business climate index for August.
9:00 a.m. - Economists expect the S&P Case-Shiller home price index to rise 0.7 percent month-on-month in June, putting the index down 0.1 percent on the year. The 20-city index has posted sharp increases in three straight months, and economists look for this momentum to continue. The national composite will also be released for the second quarter.
10:00 a.m. -- The Richmond Fed Manufacturing survey is expected to show a slight improvement in August after the previous month's contraction.
10:00 a.m. - The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence surprised to the upside with a print of 65.9 in July, and economists look for the reading to remain flat in August.
10:30 a.m. - The Dallas Fed Services Activity survey for August.
Portugal -- IMF/EU reviews Portugal's aid program.
France -- Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici holds meeting to discuss fuel prices.
Hungary -- August base rate announcement.
Germany -- September GfK consumer confidence index.
UK -- August nationwide house price index.
Thailand -- July manufacturing production.
Spain -- Q2 GDP, final reading.
E17 -- July M3 and loans to private sector.
South Africa -- Q2 GDP.
Korea -- July current account balance.
7:00 a.m. -- Mortgage Bankers Association's mortgage index for the week ending Aug. 25.
8:30 a.m. -- Economists expect Q2 GDP growth to be revised up to 1.7 percent in the second estimate from 1.5 percent, mostly due to a narrower trade deficit. Along with the revision to GDP growth, we could see revisions to the GDP deflator and PCE price index, which is expected to come in at 1.6 percent and 0.7 percent. We will also get the first estimate of corporate profits for Q2, which should show a decline of 4.9 percent, after shrinking 5.7 percent in Q1.
10:00 a.m. -- Economists look for pending home sales, which track signed contracts on single-family homes, condos and co-ops, to remain unchanged in July after falling 1.4 percent month-on-month in June.
2:00 p.m. -- The Federal Reserve releases its regional Beige Book economic survey.
Brazil -- August Selic overnight rate.
Italy -- Prime Minister Mario Monti meets German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Norway -- August interest rate announcement.
Germany -- August preliminary CPI, HICP.
France -- August business climate index.
Denmark -- Preliminary Q2 GDP.
Sweden -- August consumer confidence index, manufacturing confidence indicator and economic tendency indicator index.
Italy -- June retail sales and consumer confidence.
8:30 a.m. -- Economists look for initial jobless claims to edge down to 370,000 for the week ending Aug. 25, from 372,000 in the prior week.
8:30 a.m. -- Personal income likely increased 0.3 percent, while personal spending rose 0.5 percent in July, sending the saving rate lower. On the price front, core PCE inflation should have decelerated in July, increasing 0.1 percent monthly, which translates to a 1.7 percent annual inflation rate. Economists expect core inflation rates, which tend to be a better predictor of future headline inflation rates than headline itself, will remain below the Fed's 2 percent long-term inflation target for the foreseeable future. Headline PCE inflation should be flat on the month for July, with the year-on-year pace dropping to 1.3 percent.
11:00 a.m. - The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Composite Index for August.
TBA - The Dallas Fed mean PCE inflation rate for July.
France - President Francois Hollande visits Madrid.
E17 - ECB Execuitve board member Asmussen speaks at Wirtschaftsforum in Germany.
Philippines - Q2 GDP.
Spain - Preliminary HICP for August.
Germany - Unemployment change for August.
Poland - Q2 GDP.
E17 - August consumer confidence index, final reading.
E17 - August industrial confidence index.
Belgium - August CPI.
U.K. - August GfK consumer confidence index.
Japan - July unemployment rate.
Japan - July nationwide CPI.
Japan - July industrial production.
9:45 a.m. -- Regional manufacturing indices surprised to the downside in August, including a drop in the Empire State that unexpectedly brought it into negative territory. The decline in the Philadelphia Fed index was more muted, however, and there was a modest increase in the Markit flash PMI. Economists look for the Chicago PMI to edge down to 53.5 in August, from 53.7 in July.
10:00 a.m. - The final print of the University of Michigan's index of consumer confidence in August will likely remain unchanged at 73.6.
10:00 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (FOMC voter) speaks at the Kansas City Fed's symposium titled "The Changing Policy Landscape" in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
10:00 a.m. - Factory orders likely rose 1.8 percent in July, after posting a 0.5 percent decline in July.
Austria - Finance Minister Maria Fekter, Central Bank Governor Ewald Nowotny and European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) CEO Klaus Regling speaks in European Forum Alpbach, Austria.
E17 -- ECB Executive board member Benoit Coeuré takes part in plenary session "Union is strength" in France.
E17 - August flash HICP.
E17 - July unemployment rate.
Spain -- Cabinet meets, followed by news conference.
Spain - Adjusted July retail sales.
India - Q2 GDP.
Germany - July retail sales.
Italy - July unemployment rate.
Italy - August preliminary HICP, CPI.
Brazil - Q2 GDP.
Sources: Central banks, European Commission, Reuters, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Market News, Capital Economics, Nomura
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