Prices of iron ore may have plummeted faster than a speeding bullet in the last couple of weeks, but industry experts and analysts project its recovery will surge also as fast by the fourth quarter of this year.
Iron ore prices are set to get more competitive in the following months as BHP Billiton, along with other iron ore miners and steel producers, mull the creation of a new iron ore global pricing system by year-end or early 2012. The new, more transparent iron ore global pricing system will be simply called Global Core.
"The speed at which the iron ore price has fallen in the past few weeks has been precipitous to say the least. But when (the price) comes off that quickly, historically it tends to recover quite quickly as well", Simon Burge, CIO of ATI Asset Management told CNBC on Monday.
"We feel that the price of iron ore will recover in 4Q12," Mr Burge said.
The weaker growth environment in China, triggered by the continued debilitating fiscal crisis in the eurozone, has also equally affected the prices of the key steel-making ingredient, which had continued to decelerate, hitting to a level as low as US$88.70 a dry metric tonne last week, its lowest since October 2009. Since the start of August alone, ore with 62 per cent iron content has tumbled 25 per cent.
But despite the unfavourable circumstances in China, the production cutbacks that arose due to falling iron ore prices will eventually provide the push to support prices.
"We await significant Chinese production being shut down and restocking of ore by Chinese steel mills," analyst Alex Passmore said in a research note.
"In China there's a big pipeline of projects. It will just take Beijing to slowly ease conditions, which they will sometime in Q4 or before Q4. And we should see a turn that will help base metals and should help iron ore as well," Jeremy Friesen, Commodity Strategist at Societe Generale, told CNBC.
JP Morgan, in an investor note last week, said prices of iron ore would rebound as early as September due to declining stockpiles and improving Chinese demand.
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