Australian Dollar Outlook - 15 November 2012

Bell FX Currency Outlook: Australian Dollar takes a tumble as risk appetite wanes.

Australia: The Australian dollar has seen a significant pull back this morning as it followed equity markets lower overnight. Comments from the US Federal Reserve suggesting it was considering a bond-buying program to stimulate the labour market saw renewed concerns over the US economy.

The local unit traded to a low of 1.0369 against a stronger US dollar and is broadly lower against the crosses. A small bid for safety helped the safe-haven US dollar and saw US treasuries erase some earlier losses.

Yesterday saw a further softening of Labour Market conditions in Australia with the wage price index rising slightly less than
expected in in the third quarter. This should see inflationary pressure from labour costs reduced given the stronger than expected CPI for the quarter.

With little data releases due out today, and little to support the dollar we expect the currency to trend lower.

Majors: A 'risk off' session saw global equity markets lower overnight as woes over the US fiscal cliff and aid for Greece weighed on sentiment.

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The DJIA was down 0.9% at 12,642 whilst the S&P 500 was 0.8% lower at 1,364. The US FOMC meeting minutes revealed a number of participants favoured more quantitative easing after "operation twist" is complete, and saw risks from the fiscal cliff and weakness in Europe.

Participants mostly favoured tying the interest rate outlook for the states to numerical measures of inflation and unemployment rather than specifying a date for the end of the zero rate policy; sparking a flight to safety.

European equities were also lower off the back of disappointing industrial production.

The FTSE was 1.1% lower at 5,722 whilst the German DAX declined 0.9% 7,102. Spot gold prices were higher on safe haven flows ending up 0.2% to USD 1,729 per ounce. Oil prices were also generally higher, Brent rose 1.4% to USD 109.7 per barrel whilst WTI futures rose 1.1% to USD 86.4
per barrel
Economic Calendar
15 NOV AU Oct New Vehicle sales
EU Oct CPI Core %yr
EU Euro-Zone GDP QoQ/YoY
US Oct CPI MoM/YoY
US Nov Phiadelphia Fed Factory Survey
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