Forex Technical Update
AUD/USD 4H chart 1/18/2013 10:30AM EST
Channel Support: AUD/USD has been choppily creeping down from the 1.0597 January-high. When it got to the 1.05 area, it was testing a rising channel support as seen in the 4H chart. The market is showing some crack of this trendline. It is also testing the 200 4H SMA. The 4H RSI reading is at 40. A bullish market should hold the RSI above 40, so below that would be a sign of Aussie losing bullish momentum.
Some possible targets are 1.0470 in the near-term, 50% retracement. Then 61.8% retracement is at 1.0440. and 78.6% retracement is just under 1.04. I think there is a chance for an attempt toward 1.04 if the market can show resistance at 1.05 now that this level is broken. Back above 1.0525/30 however makes it unclear, and a rally above the projected falling channel would be a sign of bullish continuation, especially if the RSI held above 40, and the market stayed above the 200SMA.
Fan Yang CMT is a forex trader, analyst, educator and Chief Technical Strategist for FXTimes - provider of Forex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.
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