Asian Session Notes 1/30/2013

EURGBP

Resistance: 0.8569 minor / 0.8581 moderate / 0.8596 minor

Support: 0.8547 minor / 0.8527 minor / 0.8511 minor

EURGBP is at the 61.8 Fib retracement area for our sell-off from June 2011 with daily candlesticks showing a bearish Dragonfly Doji. Indicators has stochastic at overbought levels for the past month while macd is bullish though the oscillator is diverging. Intraday we have mixed signals with 4H macd crossing lower and stochastic just pushing overbought, we have a double top possibly forming in the price chart. Hourly charts has a bearish divergence in stochastic while macd is flat. At the moment there is no sense of urgency though with a moderate resistance at 0.8581 and our daily candlestick pattern we prefer looking for shorts. Consider selling from just under 0.8569 for the double top trigger at 0.8527.

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.3490(00) strong / 1.3550 moderate / 1.3600 minor

Support: 1.3461 minor / 1.3428 minor / 1.3407 moderate

Euro managed to bounce Tuesday after pulling back to the 1.3407 bullish breakout point from last Friday to close right at the 1.3490(00) 50 Fib retracement area of the sell-off from 2011 highs. Daily indicators has an overbought stochastic while macd is rising opening the possibility of a bullish breakout. In intraday charts 4H candles suggests a loss of momentum while stochastic is overbought and macd is flat. Hourly charts for their part has a series of indecision candles under 1.3500 while stochastic is dropping and macd is poised to cross lower. Given the strong resistance and lack of bullish momentum we are looking to short from under 1.3500 with a stop and reverse at 1.3515 should we get a close above 1.3500.

AUDUSD

Resistance: 1.0465 moderate / 1.0476 minor / 1.0490 strong

Support: 1.0451 moderate / 1.0440 minor / 1.0418 minor

Tuesday saw Aussy rally to the 38.2 Fib retracement area of the January sell-off, 1.0465 right around the 55D EMA. Among indicators we hav mixed signals as daily stochastic comes off oversold levels while macd is still heading lower. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals with stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is pointing up in 4H charts though candlesticks has a gravestone doji from the Wellington session. Hourly indicators for their part has a confluence of bears. Overall bias for Aussy calls for a bearish reversal though given that the immediate support, 1.0451 is the daily pivot we prefer waiting for a break of the said price before jumping short. Alternative an aggressive short may be taken from just around 1.0465 with stops just above 1.0490.