oil/usd continues to climb and test the highs with no real interest to stop. Right now we see it here trading in this narrow upward channel testing the 123.00 levels.

EU's Rehn on the Wires

Says:

• Greek bailout meant to add prerequisite for growth
• Greek bailout must be pushed throught with determination
• Must improve Greek Competitiveness in short term
• Greece needs private-sector reforms, cost adjustment
• Doesn't doubt Greek bailout commitment after April vote
• Greek default would have ‘dramatic' consequences

The 107.06-18 is key technical resistance for the EURJPY. The 107.06 level is the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the 2011 high to the January 2012 low. The 107.22 level is the 200 day MA. The price has not closed above the 200 day MA since July 7th, 2011.  A move toward these key technical levels should slow the ascent higher, with stops on a move above the key level.

On the downside, there is trendline support at the 105.95 currently. Sellers will need to push the market below this level to negate some of the bullish bias.  The topside channel comes in at the 107.05 which makes the levels from the daily chart, more significant. 

GBPUSD has consolidated over the last 5 or so hours of trading and the consolidation has allowed the 100 bar MA on the 5  minute chart to catch up to the price.  Now the market traders have a decision to make?  Do they look to reestablish the trend to the downside, or do they correct above the MA line and correct further to the upside.

Given the bearish bias I would expect sellers to use the level to lean against. If the price moves above , it should lead to stop buying and further upside corrective momentum (toward 1.5710 Fibo level).

Gold has shot up in the last few minutes and in the process is breaking above the topside channel resistance.  The level comes in at the 1769.30 level. Staying above this level accelerates the trend higher. If the price fails and moves back into the channel, it could turn the bias in the pair back to the downside.

Says:

• ‘We want a financial transaction tax in Europe'
• Euro area must be built on trust
• EU to aid Greece, Portugal, Ireland ‘is right'
• Euro-Area aid countries must do ‘their homework'
• Greece needs ‘state that functions properly'

The AUDUSD has been in a narrow trading range for the month February. The 279 pips is the narrowest since 257 pips in Feb 2011 and 254 is April 2010.  Today, the price fell to new  month lows and that low was extended in NY, after a rally into the London session. When the new low could not sustain, the choppy session continued for the pair.

Looking at the shorter term  5 minute chart below, the last move higher tested and held the 50% of the days range and the 200 bar MA.  Staying below is good for the bears but trade activity seems to be balanced.  So I would expect profit taking buyers near the lows at the 1.0603-09 levels with stops below. 

USDJPY made new highs on the day - encouraged by higher oil prices and but found sellers against the topside trendline.  The high reached 80.39.  A move above this trendline needs to be breach to extend higher today. Above that level is the 50% of the move down from the April 2011 high at the 80.535 level. 

The bulls are still in charge but there is better two way flows it seems as profit takers are aware of the key resistance above.  Sellers still need to prove they can overtake the buyers. With the price remaining above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart for most of the trading day (currently at the 80.227 level), this will be the level traders will be watching for clues for a further correction.