GBP/USD Monthly
Pound is at a crucial stage versus the dollar, 1.425 and 1.75 are possible.IBTimes UK/FXStreet

The 6.5% fall in the pound against the dollar so far this year has taken it to such a crucial level that it can decide the medium trend of the UK currency.

Much of the year's fall in sterling was in the second half like most other currencies and commodities and the GBP/USD pair is now trading at a more than one-year low.

The important level mentioned above is 1.5270, denoted by the 23.6% Fibonacci level of the very big yearly fall registered in 2008.

A break below that will stretch the downward channel since late 2009 and head towards 1.4250.

At the same time, if 1.5270 holds, the pair will be able to resume the uptrend since early 2009, making levels like 1.750 possible targets for a one-year time horizon.

In case of an uptrend, the GBP/USD will aim 1.6640 first, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Next levels are 1.6740 and the 1.7040-1.7190 region ahead of the big levels near 1.75.

Also, on the downside, 1.4800 and 1.4500 are two levels to pass with some difficulty before hitting the 1.45 target.