UK heatwave
A packed Brighton beach during the UK heatwave last year. Reuters

The chance of an El Nino weather event emerging this year is now 70% likely, experts at Australia's Bureau of Meteorology have said.

The BoM has said El-Nino-like patterns have emerged but that, as of yet, it has not established and could be related to short term variations in the weather.

"Climate models surveyed by the Bureau continue to indicate that El Nino is likely to develop by spring 2014 (September–November in Australia)," it said. "The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Nino Alert, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Nino developing in 2014."

An El Nino could result in the UK experiencing its hottest summer for some years. Earlier this year, the BBC's weather presenter Paul Hudson wrote: "One of the other main consequences of the predicted El Nino later this year would be to boost global temperatures.

"It could mean either 2014 or 2015 will become the hottest year globally on record."

Previously El Ninos have led to cold winters in the UK, however this year's event is expected to be less predictable, he said.

The BoM announcement comes as the UK is expected to have two weeks of sunshine, with Vantage Weather Service predicting temperatures to reach 26⁰C on Thursday (3 July).

The Weather Outlook said July looks to be warmer and drier than average, with the best conditions expected in the south and west. However, it also warned of heavy rain showers at times.

Speaking to the Express, James Madden from Exacta Weather said next week could end up being even hotter: "Extensive high pressure is likely to build across the country and rapidly replace the unsettled and cooler scenario as we progress throughout the latter part of next weekend and into the following week.

"This is likely to bring another period of exceptionally hot weather across many parts for several days that should see temperatures in the mid-to-high 20s at the very least."

Looking ahead, forecasters at The Weather Outlook said the second half of the month looks hot but wetter: "Forecast confidence for this period is low. The second half of the month looks set to bring a reasonable amount of fine and summery weather to southern and central regions. Possibly becoming very warm or hot at times with the risk of thundery showers."

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