NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), the space agency's largest defunct six-ton satellite the size of a bus is heading towards earth and is expected to crash within the next 24 hours, an while it is yet unknown where the space debris will fall, NASA admits the odds of Uars debris striking a person is about one in 3,200.
While NASA says the odds of the debris hitting someone anywhere in the world are 3,200 to 1, the odds are still higher than those of getting a holein one if you play golf, which are 5,000 to 1 according to the website CasinoMaze.com.
In comparison, it is also better than the odds of being struck by lightning in a lifetime , which are pegged at 10,000 to 1 while the odds of getting a royal flush in poker with first 5 cards dealt stand at 655,750 to 1, or even to be killed by a shark, which are said to be at 300,000,000 to 1.
However downplaying the risk of the debris injuring someone or landing in a highly populated area, Ted Molczan, a well-known satellite watcher told Zdnet.co.uk that the re-entry "is nothing to be particularly worried about, and if you're very lucky and in the right place at the right time, you may see quite a nice little fireworks show from it. But it's highly improbable that you'll get even that much out of it."
"You have to maintain reasonable expectations. And in this case, the right expectation is, 'I'm not going to see this'. On the other hand, if you stop there, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. So you do want to see it, you know you won't, but [if you make the effort] you might!" Molczan added.