World Currencies
Various world currencies including Chinese Yuan, Japanese Yen, US Dollar, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc are pictured in Warsaw in this file photo.REUTERS

Rate decisions by the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be the most watched central bank events in the week to 4 July, apart from Fed chair Janet Yellen's speech on 2 July.

ECB, Draghi

The ECB is unlikely to touch the rates this time after bringing the deposit rate below zero for the first time ever at the last meeting, but a section of the market is expecting measures in the category of quantitative easing, which is making the 3 July decision crucial.

Even if no additional liquidity easing measure is announced in the statement, people will wait for the press conference by ECB president Mario Draghi for likely hints about the possibility of such moves in the future.

RBA, Debelle

On 1 July, Tuesday, the RBA will likely leave the official cash rate target at 2.5%, analysts estimate, but any comments about the exchange rate scenario will be watched by the FX markets. The AUD remains particularly strong against the greenback, the euro and the yen.

RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle, in charge of financial markets, will speak on Wednesday at 11:15 GMT.

Yellen, Williams and Lew

Yellen has seen two data points surprising on the downside after her dovish rhetoric at the policy decision on 18 June - the final Q1 GDP and the May core PCE deflator.

The June FOMC had triggered a global risk rally, and if Yellen reiterates her stance considering the challenges evident in the most recent growth and inflation signals came on 25 July, that will undoubtedly boost risk assets further.

Also, FOMC member John Williams will speak on Monday at 17:10 GMT and the Treasury Secretary Jack Lew on Tuesday at 12:00 GMT.


Another G10 central bank in focus in the 29 June-4 July week is Sweden's Riksbank. They are unlikely to alter the key rate this time from 0.75%. However, the Swedish krona's drop to fresh multi-month lows versus majors might lead to some currency comments by the policy makers and it will be crucial for FX markets.


The two emerging markets due to set their main policy rates are Romania and Poland, on 1 July and 2 July respectively. The benchmark Romanian rate stays at 3.5% and the National Bank of Poland rate at 2.5%.