Here's Why Your Boots, Bags, and Furniture Are About to Get 22% More Expensive Next Year

From sofas to stilettos, tariffs and a shrinking US cattle herd are creating a perfect storm that will hit your shopping basket.

That leather sofa you have been eyeing, the work boots you need to replace, or the handbag on your wishlist could soon cost significantly more, and relief is not coming anytime soon.

The Yale Budget Lab projects that leather goods prices will remain elevated by nearly 22% for at least the next one to two years, driven by a perfect storm of tariffs, supply chain bottlenecks, and a shrinking US cattle herd. For consumers already grappling with cost-of-living pressures, the ripple effects from America's trade policies threaten to push premium leather products further out of reach.

How Tariffs Turned Leather Into a Luxury

When President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on imports in April, the leather industry was thrown into chaos overnight. Twisted X, a Texas-based bootmaker, turned a conference room at its Decatur headquarters into a 'tariff war room' as import costs on finished work boots surged and shipments were paused mid-transit.

'A lot of other leather companies had to pause shipments because of the chaos and it felt like prices were going all over the place before you could take account,' Twisted X CEO Prasad Reddy told CNBC. 'It was a very uncertain time.'

The chaos was not limited to small manufacturers. Tapestry, which owns Coach and Kate Spade, warned investors that tariff-related expenses could total $160 million (£119M), citing 'greater than previously expected profit headwinds.' Steve Madden's chairman Edward Rosenfeld described the third quarter as 'challenging, driven largely by the impact of new tariffs.'

Furniture and Upholstery Feel the Squeeze

The leather crisis extends far beyond the fashion industry. Upholstered furniture faces tariffs ranging from 30% to 50%, according to industry reports. Leather sofas and armchairs, which rely on premium hides for durability and aesthetics, face compounding pressures from both sectoral tariffs and raw material shortages.

Why Switching to Faux Leather Will Not Help

For shoppers hoping to dodge price hikes by opting for synthetic alternatives, there is bad news. Many faux-leather and polyurethane materials rely on petrochemical inputs sourced from Asia, which also fall under new tariff schedules. Industry estimates suggest synthetic footwear and handbags are seeing mid- to high-single-digit cost increases.

According to market analysis, synthetic leather currently accounts for 15% to 20% of the leather goods market by volume and costs roughly one-third of animal-based leather. However, with tariffs hitting both categories, the price gap is narrowing.

A Shrinking Cattle Herd Compounds the Problem

Beyond tariffs, a fundamental supply problem is emerging. The US cattle herd has shrunk to its smallest size since the 1950s following prolonged drought, rising feed costs, and herd liquidation. Since hides are a byproduct of beef and dairy production, fewer cattle mean fewer hides, even as global demand for premium leather persists for handbags, upholstery, and footwear.

'Few cattle means that what hides are left make it more expensive to produce boots with the high-quality leather that we use,' Reddy explained.

The US leather trade deficit underscores how dependent consumers are on foreign production. In 2023, America imported $1.37B (£1.01B) in leather apparel while exporting just $92.7M (£69M), a roughly 15-to-1 deficit, according to the Census Bureau. China alone supplies about one-third of all leather goods imported into the US.

When Will Prices Stabilise?

John Ricco of the Yale Budget Lab warns that 2026 will be when 'rubber meets the road' for leather companies forced to decide whether to pass costs to consumers, cut jobs, or reduce shareholder payments, CNBC reported.

Meanwhile, pre-tariff inventory is gone. The products hitting shelves now were manufactured with more expensive hides, subjected to pricier foreign processing, and shipped with higher freight costs than last year's merchandise, industry experts said.

For consumers, the message is clear: if you have been putting off that leather purchase, the price you see today may be the best deal you will find for years.