US Families' Income Uncertainty Reaches Record 37% Despite More Normal Recent Earnings, Fed Data Show

A record 37 per cent of US families said in 2025 that they lacked a good idea of their income for the following year, according to the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances, released on 9 October 2026.

The finding came despite a decline in the proportion of families reporting unusually high or low income in the preceding year.

The Fed's report, 'Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2022 to 2025,' examines both recent earnings and expectations about future income.

While fewer families reported income outside their usual range, uncertainty about what they would earn next continued to rise.

What the Record 37% Income Uncertainty Figure Actually Shows

The Survey of Consumer Finances has been conducted every three years since 1989, examining family income, assets, debts and financial circumstances. Unlike surveys focused on individual workers, it covers families across the wealth distribution, including those with substantial assets.

The Fed's income figures refer to earnings received during 2024, the calendar year preceding the 2025 survey. A separate question asks whether families have a good idea of their income for the following year, providing a measure of uncertainty about future earnings.

In 2025, 37 per cent of families said they lacked that certainty, the highest share recorded in the survey. The proportion has increased since the 2019 survey, although the findings do not establish why more families were uncertain about their future income.

The distinction is important because uncertainty does not necessarily indicate financial hardship. The survey does not establish that families reporting uncertainty were unemployed, experiencing income losses or expecting their earnings to decline.

Meanwhile, fewer families reported unusually high or low income compared with what they would expect in a normal year. In the 2022 survey, that proportion reached 28 per cent, an increase the Fed said was likely associated with the COVID-19 pandemic economy and related policies.

By 2025, the figure had fallen to 23 per cent, returning to its pre-pandemic level. Although fewer families reported unusual income, uncertainty about future earnings continued to increase.

The broader income figures also present a mixed picture. Real median family income rose 7 per cent between the surveys, from $76,900 (approx. €68,400 and £58,000) in 2021 to $82,200 (approx. €73,150 and £62,000) in 2024, while real mean income declined by 6 per cent.

Economic Pressures Behind the Numbers

The Fed's findings emerged against a changing economic backdrop, including shifts in employment, inflation and household debt. According to the report, the civilian unemployment rate increased from 3.7 per cent to 4.2 per cent between the 2022 and 2025 surveys.

Over the same period, the annual rate of change in the Consumer Price Index averaged 3.6 per cent. These figures describe broader economic conditions but do not establish the reasons behind families' uncertainty about future income.

Loan payment difficulties also became more widespread. The proportion of families reporting overdue loan payments rose from approximately 12 per cent in 2022 to almost 20 per cent in 2025, according to the Fed.

More than 8 per cent of families reported being at least two months behind on payments, compared with 5 per cent in 2022. Although the figures indicate increased financial pressure among some households, the report does not establish whether payment difficulties contributed to income uncertainty.

More recent consumer sentiment data suggest that economic confidence remained weak. The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 46.3 in October 2026, compared with the final September reading of 48.1.

However, consumer sentiment and the Fed's measure of income uncertainty assess different aspects of household finances. They were also collected at different times and should not be treated as directly comparable.

Retirement Savings Paint a Different Picture

The Fed's report also provides figures on retirement plan participation and savings, although these findings do not establish whether families approaching retirement were more uncertain about their income than other age groups.

In 2025, around 70 per cent of families whose reference person was aged 45 to 64 participated in a retirement plan. The measure includes individual retirement accounts, defined contribution plans and defined benefit pensions.

Among families whose reference person was aged 55 to 64 and who held an individual retirement account or defined contribution plan, mean retirement savings increased from $588,500 (approx. €524,000 and £442,600) in the 2022 survey to $670,200 (approx. €596,00 and £504,000) in 2025. Both figures are expressed in inflation-adjusted 2025 dollars.

These averages apply only to families holding the specified retirement accounts, rather than all households approaching retirement. They also do not establish how much accessible cash those families held for everyday expenses.

Separate figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that the US personal saving rate stood at 4.1 per cent in August 2026, down from 4.6 per cent in July. The measure represents personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, rather than the amount individual households hold in emergency savings.

Taken together, the findings highlight a distinction between recent financial outcomes and expectations about future earnings. Although fewer families reported unusually high or low income, a record share remained uncertain about what they would earn the following year.