Americans Say GOP Congress Would Make Them Poorer as Democrats Take the Lead on the Economy

Nearly four in 10 Americans surveyed expect to be worse off financially if Republicans retain control of Congress after November's midterm elections, while more respondents say they trust Democrats than Republicans to improve their finances, according to a YouGov poll conducted exclusively for the Daily Mail.

The survey found that 39% expected to be worse off under a Republican-controlled Congress, compared with 23% who expected to be better off. Asked which party they trusted more to improve their financial circumstances, 35% chose Democrats, and 29% chose Republicans. Another 29% trusted neither party, while 7% were unsure.

Independents Favour Democrats on Economic Trust

Among independent voters, 25% trusted Democrats more to improve their finances, compared with 10% who favoured Republicans. Nearly half, 49%, trusted neither party.

Among approximately 700 registered voters who said they would definitely vote, Democrats led Republicans by 44% to 36% on the economic-trust question. However, Democrats offer little reassurance of their own: 28% expect to be better off under a Democratic Congress, 28% worse off, and 28% about the same. Under a divided Congress, 43% expected no change, while 8% expected to be better off.

The YouGov findings suggest that economic confidence could be an important issue for voters heading into November, but they do not establish whether financial concerns will determine the outcome of the elections.

Affordability Remains a Major Concern

A CBS News analysis published on 9 October reported that nine in 10 Americans said prices were the most important factor shaping their views of the economy. It also examined the cumulative impact of five years of post-pandemic inflation on consumers. The report said prices remained a major concern despite President Donald Trump's promises to lower the cost of living.

Fuel prices also add to household pressures. AAA data for 12 October put the national average price of regular gasoline at approximately $4.36 per gallon, up from about $3.08 a year earlier. Diesel averaged roughly $6.26 per gallon, compared with approximately $3.66 over the same period. Higher fuel prices can increase transport costs for households and businesses, although the effects vary by location and individual circumstances.

The Republican National Committee defended Trump's economic agenda in a statement to the Daily Mail. 'Americans know that President Trump is fighting every day to fix Bidenflation by putting more money in working families' pockets,' national press secretary Natalie Baldassarre said. Republicans have also highlighted tax provisions covering tips, overtime pay, and seniors as part of their economic message.

Trump Campaigns Ahead of the Midterms

Trump is campaigning ahead of the 3 November midterm elections as Republicans seek to retain control of Congress. Reuters reported on 12 October that his planned campaign swing included Ohio, Alaska, Arizona, and Montana.

However, polling suggests Republicans could face a challenge in mobilising Trump's supporters. A Reuters/Ipsos poll published on 8 October found that Trump's approval rating stood at 32%, matching the record low recorded in September. The same poll found that 48% of voters who backed Kamala Harris in 2024 were 'very enthusiastic' about voting in November, compared with 30% of those who supported Trump.

The figures highlight a gap in stated voter enthusiasm, although they do not necessarily predict actual turnout. The results will also depend on candidate performance and the competitiveness of individual races.