From 1,500 Cars to Just 30: Tesla Robotaxi Missed Big 2025 Targets

Tesla, spearheaded by chief executive Elon Musk, had ambitious plans at the start of 2025, vowing to have a fleet of robotaxi totalling approximately 1,500 vehicles. In July 2025, during Tesla's second-quarter earnings call, Musk declared that the company would have robotaxis covering 'half the population of the US by the end of the year.'

Additional targets included 8 to 10 metropolitan areas operational by year-end, 500 vehicles in Greater Austin, and 1,000 in the San Francisco Bay Area. Despite high hopes for enthusiasts, reality fell short of expectations, with only approximately 30 robotaxis actively operating in Austin and around 130 in the San Francisco Bay Area by December 31, 2025 – less than 5% of the original target.

This shortfall has raised questions about Tesla's ability to meet its visionary goals and whether investors should remain confident in its ability to deliver on its self-driving ambitions. The gap between Musk's promises and Tesla's execution has become so pronounced that tech analysts and industry observers have begun using the term "Elon Time" – a reference to the predictable pattern of missed deadlines and over-promised timelines.​

Musk's Vision for Autonomy

Elon Musk has long positioned Tesla as an innovative force in self-driving technology, asserting the role of self-driving cars in transforming transportation, reducing accidents, and expanding earning options for Tesla owners. In his most recent proclamations, Musk claimed that Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is essentially 'solved' and that unsupervised autonomous driving is 'pretty much solved at this point.'

In 2019, Musk estimated that Tesla would have one million robotaxis on the road by 2020, a claim that is now widely criticised as fantasy. By December 2024, Musk adjusted this to claim 1 million robotaxis would be deployed within the current decade – a goal that requires 1 million vehicles to reach commercial operation by 2035 under his multi-trillion-dollar pay package agreement.

By 2025, Musk narrowed his aspirations to 1,500 robotaxis, aiming to make the company's vision a reality. In October 2025, during Tesla's third-quarter earnings call, Musk announced that the company would remove safety drivers from 'large parts of Austin' by year-end, claiming full autonomy would soon be standard. However, there continued to be a mismatch between Musk's rhetoric and Tesla's delivery, which has now given rise to some mistrust among analysts and regulators.

As of late December 2025, human safety monitors remain mandatory in all Tesla robotaxis – whether in the front passenger seat (Austin) or behind the steering wheel (San Francisco Bay Area due to California regulations).

Technical and Regulatory Issues

While production is at the surface, there are other critical throughput issues undermining Tesla's ability to meet its targets. On April 23, 2025, during Tesla's first-quarter earnings call, Musk promised that the company was 'on track to be able to do paid rides fully autonomously in Austin in June' following 'many other cities in the US by the end of this year.' This deadline was missed entirely.

On the one hand, Tesla's autonomous driving system remains under scrutiny by regulators worldwide. In November 2025, Musk confirmed that Tesla's next-generation AI5 chip – originally intended to power the Cybercab robotaxi launched in April 2026 – would be delayed to mid-2027, meaning the Cybercab would launch on current-generation AI4 hardware despite claims that AI5 is '40x more capable.'

On the other hand, safety concerns stemming from inconsistent performance and a lack of clear regulatory frameworks have negatively impacted its production pace.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in the US has been conducting research into the Tesla Autopilot system following a series of high-profile accidents involving it. In 2025, a fatal collision involving a Tesla vehicle using FSD in Washington State intensified regulatory scrutiny.

In the meantime, the European regulators have insisted on increased testing of autonomous vehicles before they become popular.

Additionally, the Cybercab design – which Musk unveiled with 'no mirrors, no pedals, no steering wheel' – has proven problematic; recent sightings show Cybercab prototypes being tested with steering wheels, suggesting Tesla may need to reverse this design decision. These stumbling blocks have made it hard for Tesla to take its robotaxi programme to the levels Musk imagined.

Tesla has yet to secure NHTSA exemptions for the Cybercab's non-standard design, a regulatory requirement that could delay commercialisation further.

Investor Sentiment and Market Impact

Despite the shortfall, Tesla's stock has remained relatively resilient, with investors primarily focused on the company's core electric vehicle business. Tesla's stock price has been resilient, as investors continue to bank on the company's long-term prospects. However, survey data from May 2025 revealed concerning consumer skepticism: 60% of consumers considered FSD 'unsafe,' 77% were unwilling to use FSD technology, and 48% believed it should be illegal.

Analysts suggest that despite the underperformance of the robotaxi programme, Tesla's future business in electric cars remains promising. Tesla reported Q4 2025 delivery estimates of approximately 423,000 vehicles – significantly below market consensus of 445,000 and marking an 11% decline year-over-year. The thriving sales of the Model Y and Cybertruck have also helped abate growing concerns about autonomous technology.

There is, however, a danger of losing credibility due to recurring delays, as the sceptics caution. According to one analyst at Morningstar, Tesla investors have learned to accept 'Elon Time' – as long as the CEO eventually delivers results. However, repeated delays without tangible progress risk eroding that goodwill.

According to one analyst, Tesla now operates under the brand promise Musk assured, and if it cannot fulfil it, it will lose investor confidence. ARK Invest's Cathie Wood has increased her 2030 price target to $2,600 per share ($2.6 trillion valuation potential), betting heavily on Robotaxi success – but Wood's confidence is contingent on Tesla achieving meaningful scale in autonomous operations by 2026.

The Road Ahead

Tesla claims that its ambitions to build robotaxis remain unchanged. The company has targeted April 2026 for Cybercab volume production, though industry analysts widely question whether this timeline is achievable given current technical limitations.

Musk has also confirmed that complete autonomy can be achieved, thus the company would finally roll out a large-scale fleet. However, it is still unclear when this would happen. Musk shared on December 24, 2025, that he took a fully driverless ride in an Austin Model Y robotaxi with 'perfect driving,' yet public reports from customers still document safety monitors remaining in vehicles.

According to industry analysts, it might not be possible to get several robotaxis on the road within the timeframe that Musk is projecting. Electrek analysts predict that Tesla may be forced to launch the Cybercab with a steering wheel and pedals – contradicting Musk's original design vision – given that unsupervised FSD has not been achieved even in millions of customer vehicles already on the road.

The technologies behind AI, sensors, and regulatory acceptance must all be improved before autonomous vehicles can be safely deployed at scale. The gap between Musk's claims and Tesla's actual technological progress has become so pronounced that competitors like Waymo and Zoox – which employ lidar and radar systems – have already deployed larger autonomous fleets at scale with superior safety records.

Although Tesla remains a frontrunner in electric cars, its robotaxi plans have questionable prospects. Tesla faces intensifying global competition, weakening demand, and persistent delays in autonomy and robotics that have prompted some analysts to issue "Strong Sell" ratings on the stock despite its trillion-dollar valuation. Both investors and regulators will be keen to see whether Musk finally translates vision into reality.

For Tesla's robotaxi ambitions to succeed and justify investor valuations, the company must solve unsupervised autonomy, secure regulatory exemptions, and scale operations to thousands of vehicles – achievements that have eluded the company throughout 2025 despite repeated promises.