Bitcoin Skyrockets to $125k as Analysts Say US Government Shutdown Is the Fuel on the Fire

Bitcoin shattered its previous records over the weekend, soaring past $125,700 and pushing its market capitalisation beyond the $2.5 trillion milestone for the first time in crypto history. The surge has prompted analysts to call for a renewed accumulation phase, which could fuel a rally toward $150,000 before the end of the year.

Macroeconomic Factors at Play

The rally was supported by multiple macroeconomic factors, including the recent US government shutdown, the first since 2018. Some analysts suggest this event has renewed interest in Bitcoin's role as a store of value, a condition that has led to 'major price milestones' in the past, according to Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at digital asset banking group Sygnum Bank.

The US government shutdown has 'renewed discussion around Bitcoin's store-of-value role, as political dysfunction underscores interest in decentralised assets', Dori told Cointelegraph. 'At the same time, the broader environment, characterised by loose liquidity conditions, a service-led acceleration in the business cycle, and narrowing underperformance relative to equities and gold, has drawn attention to digital assets', he added.

However, the extent of the shutdown's tailwind effect will ultimately depend on how it influences the US Federal Reserve's perspective on interest rate decisions. Jake Kennis, a senior research analyst at Nansen, said that 'crypto markets could benefit from a shutdown resolution if it reduces uncertainty and pushes the Fed toward a more dovish stance'.

A New Accumulation Phase

While some analysts saw the shutdown as a signal of a potential market bottom, Kennis said it is 'premature to call this a local market bottom', as confirmation would require 'multi-week stability above key support levels'.

Instead, others view Bitcoin's recent growth as a sign of a new accumulation phase by large entities. On-chain data suggests a decline in selling pressure from whales, indicating a shift in market dynamics.

'Market data indicates the current price action may be linked to an accumulation phase', said Sygnum Bank's Dori. 'Selling pressure from long-term holders appears to be easing, while short-term investors show signs of stabilisation after a period of realised losses'. He added that periods of 'cooling speculative activity and steadier positioning' have historically preceded significant Bitcoin rallies.

This sentiment is echoed by blockchain data platform Glassnode, which reported that Bitcoin's open interest 'reset sharply' after last week's options expiry. This reset may 'set the stage' for a strong fourth quarter.

The Path to $150,000

Slowing speculative activity may attract more attention to Bitcoin, reinforcing analyst predictions of a breakout. If BTC can sustain its momentum above the key $120,000 psychological level, it could reach $150,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025, Charles Edwards told Cointelegraph at Token2049.