Golden Handcuffs: 54% of Families Won't Sell in 2025 — Likely to Keep You Trapped in Rent

More than half of American homeowners have no intention of selling their properties in 2025, regardless of where mortgage rates land, deepening a housing crisis that threatens to lock an entire generation of renters out of homeownership indefinitely.

A Bankrate survey shows 54% of US homeowners wouldn't feel comfortable selling at any mortgage rate in 2025, up 12 percentage points from last year. An equal proportion of property owners, 51%, indicate they would be reluctant to purchase a different property. The results reveal a housing sector gripped by what economic experts term the 'lock-in effect'—where homeowners remain anchored to low mortgage rates secured during the pandemic, while prospective buyers are left unable to enter the market.

The Maths Behind the Paralysis

The arithmetic is brutally simple. Most American homeowners have mortgage rates below 4%, with some below 3%. According to research by the Urban Institute, nearly 48% of borrowers with government-backed mortgages have interest rates at or below 3.5%.

Meanwhile, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.19% as of December 4, 2025, according to Freddie Mac data. That gap amounts to hundreds of dollars in additional monthly payments for anyone willing to surrender their pandemic-era deal.

'Americans who bought homes at pre-2021 prices and pre-2022 mortgage rates face sticker shock when they look at today's housing market,' Jeff Ostrowski, real estate analyst at Bankrate, told CNBC. 'Home prices are at record highs, and mortgage rates are also much higher. That combination is creating reluctance to do anything.'

This hesitation is especially pronounced among those with the lowest existing rates. 41% of homeowners paying less than 3% say they wouldn't consider buying again at any rate. For these owners, staying put keeps their largest household expense fixed at an unusually low level.

First-Time Buyers: A Vanishing Breed

The consequences for renters hoping to become homeowners are severe. According to the National Association of Realtors' 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, the share of first-time home buyers dropped to a record low of 21%, while the typical age of first-time buyers rose to an all-time high of 40 years.

'The share of first-time buyers in the market has contracted by 50% since 2007, right before the Great Recession,' said Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist. 'The implications for the housing market are staggering.'

According to Oxford Economics, 38% of US households have the necessary income to afford a home, down from 57% in the third quarter of 2020.

The Rental Trap

According to Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies, the renter crisis feeds the homeownership crisis: cost-burdened renters can't save for down payments, trapping them in the rental market and preventing wealth building.

Estimates from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development suggest median rents for 2025 will be 4.8% higher nationally than in 2024, reflecting ongoing pressure on housing costs. The 2024 median rental rate represents a 32% increase over the past five years.

Earlier this year, the National Low Income Housing Coalition reported a national shortage of 7.1 million homes affordable and available for extremely low-income renters, with only 35 affordable and available homes for every 100 extremely low-income renter households.

When Will the Lock-In Effect Break?

According to seasonally adjusted data from the National Association of Realtors, Spring 2025 home sales are tracking at levels last seen during the 2009 housing crash. Only 3% of homeowners say they would be comfortable selling a home this year if mortgage rates are 6% or higher, Bankrate reported.

The lock-in effect has already begun to ease because some households want or need to sell regardless of current rates. Although the lock-in effect may linger to some degree for years, it could fade more quickly if mortgage rates fall significantly, according to analysis from the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

Realtor.com's latest housing report expects average 30-year mortgage rates to remain near 6.3% throughout 2026. For renters dreaming of homeownership, that forecast offers little comfort.

The golden handcuffs binding homeowners to their properties show no signs of loosening. For the millions trapped in rising rents, the question isn't whether they can afford to buy — it's whether they'll ever get the chance.

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