Max Verstappen to Mercedes? F1 Transfer Rumours Heat Up Amid Red Bull Turmoil

Could Max Verstappen walk away from Red Bull before his contract ends? With the Formula One world gripped by speculation and Red Bull in turmoil, mounting evidence suggests a move to Mercedes as early as 2026 could be a serious possibility.

Here are five compelling signs that this rumour may not be just talk from the paddock.

Red Bull's Internal Collapse Is Undeniable

Red Bull's downfall began with the emotional and abrupt exit of team principal Christian Horner. Per reports from News.com.au, Horner was left 'in tears' following his departure amid growing internal tension and scrutiny.

Soon after, legendary designer Adrian Newey confirmed he too would be leaving. On-track performance has also dipped, Red Bull now sits fourth in the constructors' standings.

One senior figure reportedly close to the team said: 'It's no longer the powerhouse it was, Max can sense the decline'.

Private Talks with Mercedes Suggest Active Negotiations

According to The Guardian, Verstappen's management team have been in private discussions with Mercedes about a possible transfer from 2026 onwards.

Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff has not denied these claims. In fact, he told journalists that the team is keeping 'all doors open' and considering 'long-term solutions'. Sky Italy even reported that an agreement could already be 'close'.

Adding to the intrigue, George Russell's contract renewal has reportedly been put on hold, raising questions about who might be occupying the other Mercedes seat.

Verstappen's Exit Clause Could Activate After Hungary

Despite being contracted to Red Bull until 2028, Verstappen has what's known as a performance-based exit clause. As reported by Reuters, this clause allows him to leave the team early if Red Bull drops out of the top three in the constructors' championship by the summer break.

The Belgian Grand Prix on 27 July 2025 could prove decisive. If Red Bull slips, Verstappen would be legally permitted to exit his contract, giving Mercedes a green light to make an offer.

That turns a rumour into a real possibility.

Mercedes Has the Budget and Motivation to Sign Him

In 2024, Mercedes allocated £98.6 million ($126 million) for driver salaries and team development. With Lewis Hamilton's retirement freeing up over £33 million ($42 million), the team has both financial and strategic incentive to bring in a high-profile name.

This move would align with their rebuild ahead of the 2026 regulation changes. Mercedes are already investing heavily in power unit development, and Verstappen would be the ideal driver to lead that transition.

McLaren CEO Zak Brown summed it up: 'If Max is even slightly unsettled, Mercedes will go all in. Where there's smoke, there's fire'.

Verstappen's Silence Is Louder Than Words

Perhaps the most telling clue is Verstappen's silence. Normally vocal in defending Red Bull, he has avoided addressing the latest speculation.

Insiders say he is growing increasingly disillusioned with the team's direction. One close source remarked: 'Max wants legacy, not damage control. This environment isn't what he signed up for'.

With no public denial and continued tension behind the scenes, fans and analysts alike are starting to believe the writing may be on the wall.

What Happens Next Could Reshape the Grid

The next few weeks will be critical. Red Bull must stay in the top three to retain Verstappen contractually. Should they falter in Belgium on 27 July 2025, the clause becomes active and Mercedes can begin formal talks.

Meanwhile:

• George Russell's contract status remains unresolved.
• Mercedes continues to play a long game with 2026 in sight.
• Red Bull are reportedly preparing for all outcomes.

Whether Verstappen leaves or not, the rumour has already changed the driver market conversation.