US Health Insurance Costs Could Rise 11.1% in 2027 – The Biggest Jump in Over 20 Years

American workers are about to pay more for the health coverage they get through their jobs. The Wall Street Journal reports that costs could rise 11.1% in 2027, which would be the steepest increase in more than 20 years.

Every other forecast published this summer is lower, but they all point the same way. The consultancy Aon expects a 9.5% rise. Segal, another benefits firm, puts it at 9.9%. Employers themselves predict 10%.

The numbers differ because they measure different things. Some track what a company spends per worker. Others track what insurers charge, or what it costs to treat a patient.

None of them is wrong. They are counting from different starting points, which is how one story produces six answers.

Why the Bills Are Going Up

Three things are pushing costs higher, and none of them is new. People are using more care. Long-term illnesses are more common, and the number of very expensive claims keeps growing.

Medicines are the second reason. Weight-loss and diabetes drugs such as Ozempic have spread far beyond diabetes into obesity, heart conditions, and sleep problems. Segal found that plans covering these drugs for weight loss saw drug costs rise 18.3% in one year. Plans that did not cover them saw 10.5%.

Eric Miller, a consulting actuary at Segal, said the problem is not only new medicines. It is also 'existing drugs being approved to treat new things.'

The third reason is newer and stranger. Hospitals and doctors are using artificial intelligence to write up patient notes and billing codes in more detail. More detail means higher bills, even when the care itself has not changed. Aon flagged this as a growing pressure. Almost 70% of health plans surveyed by PwC ranked it among their top three cost drivers.

What Companies Are Doing About It

Employers rarely swallow the whole increase. They change what the plan covers, and that is where workers feel it.

Two-thirds of large American companies expect to take more out of pay packets for health cover next year. Nearly half plan to raise the amount a worker must spend before cover starts, or the fixed charge for each visit.

Beth Umland, director of research at the benefits firm Mercer, said companies absorbed these rises at first and have now started passing them on.

Some are cutting the drugs instead. More than a quarter of employers tightened the rules on who can get weight-loss medicines this year or next. A small number are dropping them altogether.

What It Costs a Worker

The average American worker is expected to pay about $5,297 this year for health cover. That figure counts both the money taken from pay and what they spend at the pharmacy or the doctor's desk. It is $388 more than last year.

The employer pays far more. Aon expects the average company cost to pass $19,000 per employee in 2027. That gap matters, because the employer share is not free money. It is part of what a job pays, and it grows every year in place of a wage rise.

For anyone buying cover directly rather than through work, the picture is worse. Nearly 300 insurers across America have asked to raise their prices by a median of 14% next year, according to the health research group KFF.

The One Thing a Worker Can Change

Open enrolment is the short window each autumn when staff pick their plan for the year ahead. It is the only point where a worker has any say at all.

Most firms offer more than one option. The cheaper plan usually takes less from pay but charges more when care is actually needed. Figuring out which way round that lands is worth an hour before the deadline.