Germany's Far-Right AfD Wins Saxony-Anhalt Election But Governing Majority Remains Uncertain

Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany won the Saxony-Anhalt state election on Sunday, according to projections, with roughly 44 per cent of the vote, although projections indicated it was narrowly short of an absolute majority of seats.

The result put Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union far behind and left open whether the AfD can form the next state government.

The AfD entered the election seeking an absolute majority that would allow it to govern without coalition partners and bypass the refusal of Germany's mainstream parties to work with it.

An initial ARD projection put the AfD at 44.5 per cent and the CDU at 18.5 per cent. By 21:21 local time, ARD's latest projection put the AfD at 44.0 per cent and the CDU at 17.8 per cent, with the AfD still short of an absolute majority.

AfD Victory Leaves Power Question Unresolved

Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD's 35-year-old lead candidate, said the result had delivered the breakthrough his party wanted. 'We have achieved exactly what we wanted to achieve,' he said. 'We have made history in this state.'

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel described the result as 'historic' and said the party had received 'a very clear mandate to govern here'. She added that its 'hand is outstretched to all who want to make Saxony-Anhalt better and move Germany forward'.

Yet the projections left the AfD at least marginally short of an absolute majority in the state parliament. Winning the largest share of votes does not guarantee control of the state government without the parliamentary support required.

The AfD has never participated in a ruling coalition in any of Germany's 16 states or at federal level. The CDU and other established parties have maintained a so-called 'firewall' against governing with the AfD.

AfD Win Leaves Merz's CDU a Distant Second

The CDU, which has led Saxony-Anhalt for 24 years, was projected to finish a distant second. Incumbent governor Sven Schulze congratulated the AfD on becoming the state's strongest political force and said the CDU would have to 'deal with this result', without setting out how.

CDU general secretary Franziska Hoppermann rejected any retreat from the firewall. 'AfD is a right-wing extremist party,' she said, also criticising its positions on the euro, Russia and Germany's social model. 'We will not work with them.'

If the AfD falls short of a majority, Schulze could seek a CDU-led minority government or another arrangement, although current projections indicate it would require at least tacit support from the Left Party.

Such an outcome would keep the AfD out of government despite its first-place finish, as happened after an AfD state election victory in neighbouring Thuringia two years earlier.

AfD Agenda Would Test State Powers

Germany's states exercise substantial authority over areas including security and education, giving the Saxony-Anhalt result practical significance beyond party politics.

Siegmund has listed a 'deportation offensive' among his priorities and has called for ending incentives that, in his words, allow people to come to Germany and 'exploit our social system'. The state AfD also wants to permit home schooling, bar schools from officially raising rainbow flags and require them to fly the German flag.

The party opposes taxpayer funding for Ukraine and wants sanctions against Russia lifted, although state governments cannot decide either issue.

AfD Faces Coalition Barrier After Election Win

The remaining uncertainty is therefore less about who finished first than about who can command enough support in the legislature.

Projections showed the Left Party, Social Democrats and Greens at roughly 8.5 to 9 per cent each,while BSW remained close to the 5 per cent threshold, at 5.1 per cent in the latest ARD projection.

The final seat distribution will determine whether the AfD can govern alone or whether other parties can sustain an alternative government, potentially through a minority administration.