Asda in Crisis: Market Share Crumbles as Analysts Warn Aldi Could Overtake It 'In the Next Six to 12 Months', Report Says

Asda is facing its toughest period in more than a decade as new market data shows the supermarket rapidly losing ground to Aldi, which analysts say is now within months of overtaking it as Britain's third-largest grocer.

According to a recent report, which draws on fresh industry figures and expert commentary published by This Is Money, Asda's sales and market share have slumped to levels not seen since 2011, raising concerns about the chain's ability to compete during the ongoing cost-of-living squeeze.

Market Share Hits New Low

Data from Worldpanel shows Asda's market share falling to 11.8 per cent, its weakest performance in over a decade. Further findings from NIQ reveal sales plunging by 6.5 per cent in the 12 weeks to November 1, marking the sharpest decline among the major grocers.

Once inflation is stripped out, volumes are estimated to be down by around 10 per cent as shoppers defect to cheaper rivals. Retail analyst Clive Black described Asda's decline as 'remarkable' and warned that 'Asda's momentum is exceptionally weak' ahead of the crucial Christmas period.

Aldi Tightens the Gap

Aldi continues to attract cost-conscious shoppers, and the pace of Asda's decline has narrowed the distance between the two chains considerably. Retail expert Jonathan de Mello warned that:
'If current sales trajectories continue, Aldi could feasibly overtake Asda in the next six to 12 months, particularly if cost-of-living pressures persist and shoppers remain focused on value.'

Such a shift would mark the first major shake-up of the supermarket rankings in decades.

Leadership Turmoil Deepens the Problem

The report highlights growing questions around Asda's ownership and direction. The Issa brothers, who acquired the chain for £6.8 billion alongside TDR Capital, have faced scrutiny over rising debts and unpopular strategic decisions that critics say weakened the supermarket's competitiveness.

Unhelpful headlines and internal changes have compounded the pressure, while executive chairman Allan Leighton has been attempting to steer the business back to its value-focused roots. Despite this, Asda remains without a chief executive, a vacancy that has stretched on for four years.

Operational Challenges Continue

Asda's decline has been accelerated by a series of missteps, including controversial petrol price decisions and store acquisitions that baffled industry observers. The supermarket also recently completed a major IT separation from its former owner Walmart, a move intended to stabilise operations but one that may have introduced new complications.

A source familiar with the company insists the retailer is still focused on recovery, saying:
'It will take time to rebuild market share, as it does in the grocery sector, but we remain confident in our long-term strategy and our fantastic customer proposition.'

The source added that improvements have been made to pricing, availability and customer experience.

What It Means for Shoppers

If Aldi continues its upward trajectory, competition for value-focused households will intensify. Promotions, pricing strategies and own-label ranges may shift across the sector as retailers compete for the same cost-conscious customers.

For Asda, the challenge is now urgent. With falling sales, shrinking market share and leadership gaps, the supermarket enters the all-important Christmas season under mounting pressure. Unless recovery efforts gain traction soon, Aldi could well take Asda's long-held place in the supermarket rankings.