Goldman Sachs Says Nvidia to Post a Q4 Revenue Beat of $2B, but Stock Price Hinges on 2027 Guidance

AI giant Nvidia is set to announce its Q4 results on Feb. 25, and Goldman Sachs believes the chipmaker will deliver a $2 billion revenue surprise to post a quarterly revenue of $67.3 billion. 'We expect Nvidia to deliver a ~$2bn revenue beat in 4Q, and we stand 8% above the Street for 1Q revenue,' Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a recent note to clients. 'Our 4Q and 1Q EPS estimates are 5% and 9% above the Street.'

However, the brokerage warned that investors might have already priced in a strong quarterly result, and the stock price movement from hereon will depend on Nvidia's financial outlook for 2026 and 2027. 'We believe upside to Nvidia's CY26 estimates is largely priced into the stock at current levels, and stock price outperformance will hinge on revenue visibility into CY27,' analysts noted.

In simple terms, Goldman Sachs' view means that it would take more than upbeat quarterly earnings and revenue to convince investors that demand remains robust for 2026 and next year. The brokerage had a 12-month stock price target for Nvidia of $250 per share, implying potential upside of over 30%. For 2027, Goldman Sachs expects EPS of $4.49 on revenue of $215.1 billion. Its guidance for 2028 stood at earnings of $12.13 on revenue of $513 billion.

Nvidia's 2026 Catalysts, According to Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs sees upside to Nvidia's data centre guidance. The company modelled $500 billion in data centre revenue for 2026, but Goldman believes it is 'well above the Street' estimates. Any 'visibility into 2027, and any directional commentary on this front could be a positive catalyst for the stock,' the research note said.

Nvidia stock could also benefit from an increase in GPU demand from large-language model companies such as Microsoft-backed OpenAI and Anthropic. Analysts believe that 'initial signs of execution from OpenAI, and commentary from Nvidia on visibility into those deployments' would be positive for the stock.

Although China accounted for more than 20% of Nvidia's revenue a few years ago, this has dropped by over 50% due to sweeping trade restrictions. However, the US administration has now allowed the sale of Nvidia's H200 GPUs in China, while Chinese officials have also eased constraints, which is expected to facilitate higher sales. Any positive commentary on Chinese demand during Nvidia's earnings call could therefore drive the stock price higher.

Nvidia is working to replace Blackwell chips with the faster and more efficient Rubin GPUs, with shipments expected to begin in Q3 and a strong ramp-up in Q4. A positive outlook on the progress of Rubin deployments could boost the stock, according to Goldman Sachs. The brokerage added that Nvidia expects demand and shipment trends to support considerable revenue and earnings growth at least through 2028.

However, analysts warned that any slump in AI infrastructure spending, rising competition leading to market share and margin erosion, and supply constraints continue to pose risks for Nvidia moving forward.

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