GTA 6
With lead studio Rockstar North based in Edinburgh, much of the GTA 6 windfall flows to the UK as US workplaces eat the loss DiscussingFilm/X

Around 1.5 million Americans plan to skip work when Grand Theft Auto 6 launches on 19 November, a mass sick day one economist estimates could drain roughly $1 billion (£740 million) from US output in a single day.

The estimate comes from José García Montalvo, an economics professor at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona. His figure is an academic projection rather than an official forecast, but the reasoning is simple. People need time to play it.

The Math Behind the Billion-Dollar Sick Day

Montalvo bases the figure on roughly 1.5 million absences and an average yearly output of about $70,000 (£51,900) per US worker, landing on a short-term productivity dip of around 2%. Men aged 18 to 30 make up most of the missing workers, and the technology sector looks set to take the hardest hit.

Even employees who clock in may add to the drag, with launch-week chatter, late-night sessions, and streams pulling focus across offices.

The pattern is not new. When Grand Theft Auto 5 arrived in 2013, some reports found up to 6% of workers aged 18 to 35 in cities such as Los Angeles and New York took launch day off.

The Money Shifts, It Does Not Vanish

Here is the twist most coverage misses. The $1 billion America stands to lose almost exactly matches what the game's publisher expects to earn. Take-Two Interactive chief executive Strauss Zelnick told shareholders the company expects more than $1 billion in operating cash flow this fiscal year, with GTA 6 the main driver.

In other words, the money does not disappear. It moves from US employers, who lose a day of labour, to Take-Two and Rockstar Games, who bank the sales that same week.

Why the UK Quietly Cashes In

There is a further catch for the US. Rockstar North, the lead studio behind the game, is based in Edinburgh. Much of the windfall therefore flows to the UK even as American workplaces absorb the loss.

The split leaves an awkward result. US firms carry the cost, while the biggest rewards land on the other side of the Atlantic.

The sums are large. Market research firm Newzoo estimates GTA 6 could sell at least 37 million copies in its opening week, with global first-week retail bookings running as high as $4.5 billion (£3.3 billion). Newzoo also pegged the opening pre-order week alone at around $260 million (£192 million) globally.

A Staffing Hole US Managers Can See Coming

Some US firms are already planning around it. California parts retailer Burger Motorsports told customers in a public notice that shipping and support would slow from 19 November, after several staff booked time off to play.

The behaviour is easy to spot. Software engineer Bud Burruss told The Wall Street Journal he plans to take five working days off once the game arrives, and he is not alone in blocking off a full week.

For managers in tech and other young, male-heavy fields, the message is practical. Rockstar has confirmed the game lands on Thursday 19 November for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X and S, one week before Thanksgiving. The sick day is coming whether payroll plans for it or not, and the billion dollars will simply change hands.

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