Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has struck an unusually sombre tone in her Christmas address, warning government staff and the wider public that 2026 is likely to be 'even worse' than a year already marked by economic and political strain.

Speaking during a seasonal greeting at the Government Palace and aired over RT, Meloni described 2025 as a year defined by constant struggle and hardship, framing her administration as a 'family' that has been fighting on multiple fronts.

'We are a family, we've been fighting all year. It was hard for all of us,' she said, before adding bluntly: 'But don't worry, because next year will be even worse.'

She urged staff to rest during the holiday period, suggesting the scale of challenges ahead would require unprecedented political and economic stamina.

Meloni Strikes a Sombre Note as Christmas Address Breaks From Optimism

The remarks have reverberated across Italy's political and economic landscape, marking a notable shift from Meloni's more optimistic rhetoric over the past year. In 2024 and 2025, the prime minister sought to position herself as a pragmatic 'bridge' between the European Union and the United States, while emphasising stability and reform.

Her latest comments, however, appear to signal a turn towards a more hard-edged realism as Italy faces mounting domestic pressures and geopolitical uncertainty.

Italy Faces Debt Pressures, Weak Growth and Geopolitical Gridlock

Italy enters 2026 with several unresolved structural challenges. Public debt remains among the highest in the eurozone, projected to hover around 137 per cent of GDP, while elevated interest rates and the gradual withdrawal of pandemic-era tax incentives continue to strain public finances.

On the international front, Meloni has increasingly criticised what she describes as the European Union's 'inability to make decisions'. She has voiced reservations about proposals to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine without a 'solid legal basis' and has warned that excessive bureaucracy risks paralysing Europe.

Trade tensions also loom, particularly amid the prospect of a second Donald Trump presidency in the United States, which Meloni has suggested could further complicate EU–US relations.

Economic growth remains sluggish. Italy's national statistics agency, ISTAT, forecasts GDP growth of around 0.8 per cent in 2026, while the business lobby Confindustria has described the government's reform agenda as 'an important signal of dialogue' but insufficient to unlock stronger momentum.

2026 Shapes Up as a Make-or-Break Year for Meloni's Government

Politically, 2026 represents a pivotal moment for Meloni. It marks the final full year before the 2027 general election and coincides with key deadlines for projects funded under the EU's National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP).

The recovery package, worth approximately £167 billion ($211 billion) in grants and loans, has been widely credited with preventing Italy from slipping into recession after the pandemic. However, the use of the funds has become a point of contention.

Carlo Calenda, a former industry minister and leader of the centrist Action party, has criticised the government's spending choices, arguing that much of the funding has been wasted.

'The main problem is how we have spent the NRRP funds,' Calenda said. 'Spain used the money to incentivise businesses and attract investment. We distributed it indiscriminately to municipalities, much of it on totally useless projects.'

The government has rejected the accusation, insisting that the funds have been channelled into strategic infrastructure projects, including transport upgrades, that will deliver long-term benefits.

Polls Suggest Meloni Still Dominates a Fragmented Political Field

Despite growing unease, Meloni remains a dominant figure in Italian politics. Known for her direct and combative style, she continues to resonate with voters sceptical of traditional political elites.

'She is not loved by a majority of Italians, but there is no obvious alternative at present,' said Lorenzo Pregliasco, founder of polling firm YouTrend.

Italy's ageing population, with roughly a quarter of citizens aged 65 or over, has also contributed to resistance against rapid structural change, complicating Meloni's reform agenda.

Pregliasco believes the prime minister is still well positioned, but cautions against overconfidence.

'My baseline scenario is that Meloni will likely complete this legislature and will likely be the favourite to win the next election,' he said. 'But this is Italy, and it doesn't take much for the winds to change.'

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