Tropical Storm Ada
DOST-PAGASA

Residents hoping for a swift exit for Tropical Storm Ada are in for a disappointment, as the system is currently churning slowly over the Philippine Sea.

The storm's sluggish pace extends the threat window for Eastern Visayas and Southern Luzon, with meteorologists warning that the disturbance will linger in the Philippine area of responsibility through the weekend. Authorities have urged the public to remain vigilant, as the erratic track could still bring the centre of the storm dangerously close to land.

Storm Looms Off The Coast Of Surigao And Leyte

As of 5:00 AM on 16 January, the centre of Tropical Storm Ada was estimated at 370 km east of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte, or 430 km east of Maasin City, Southern Leyte. The system is packing maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the centre, with gustiness reaching up to 80 km/h. Its central pressure was recorded at 998 hPa.

Current data indicates the storm is moving 'North-northwestward Slowly'. That crawl is the main worry for meteorologists right now. When a storm stalls, it essentially parks itself over a region, hammering the same towns with wind and rain for hours on end. It just sits there, dumping rain and churning up the seas, which means the danger of flooding or landslides goes up even if the storm's eye stays well offshore.

Why Ada Is Predicted To Stay Near Bicol And Samar For Days

The track forecast suggests a complex movement pattern for Ada over the next five days. The storm is expected to move generally northwestward today through tomorrow, 17 January. However, by Sunday, 18 January, it is projected to turn slowly from north-northwestward to northeastward.

The situation becomes more unusual early next week. Beginning Tuesday evening, 20 January, Ada is forecast to move southeastward while hovering over the sea east of the Bicol Region. On this projected track, the centre may pass close to Eastern Samar and Northern Samar tomorrow and near Catanduanes by Sunday.

While Ada is forecast to remain a tropical storm category while moving over the sea east of Visayas and Southern Luzon, there is a possibility it may weaken into a tropical depression by Tuesday. However, the unpredictability of the track remains a critical factor. A further westward shift in the forecast track 'may result in a possible landfall over Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region'.

Communities Under Signal No. 1 Across Visayas And Luzon

Due to the storm's proximity and the extent of its winds, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 1 is currently in effect across a wide swathe of the archipelago. Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 400 km from the centre. This signal warns of wind speeds ranging from 39 to 61 km/h, carrying a potential for minimal to minor threats to life and property.

In the Visayas, warnings cover Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, and Biliran. Northern and central Leyte are in the path as well, with the warning covering major population centres like Tacloban City, Palo, and Ormoc City. The eastern portion of Southern Leyte, including Sogod and Hinunangan, is also under Signal No. 1.

Up north in Luzon, residents in Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Camarines Sur should be preparing for rough weather, along with those in the eastern parts of Camarines Norte and Masbate. Mindanao is not spared, with Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, and Surigao del Sur currently under the wind signal.

Rough Seas Prompt Warnings For Mariners In Eastern Seaboards

The disturbance is generating dangerous conditions at sea, forcing weather officials to issue strict advisories for maritime operations. Wave heights are expected to reach up to 4.0 metres along the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes and Northern Samar. Similar rough seas are anticipated for the eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar.

Mariners operating small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, have been advised 'not to venture out to sea under these conditions'. This is particularly vital for those who are inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels. Even in areas with moderate seas of up to 2.5 metres, such as the seaboards of Batanes and Ilocos Norte, caution is strongly advised.

Ada And The Monsoon: A Double Blow

To make matters worse, Ada isn't the only weather system in play. The Northeast Monsoon and the periphery of Ada will bring strong to gale-force gusts over areas even outside the direct warning signals. Today, these gusts are expected to impact Batanes, the Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, and CALABARZON.

By Saturday and Sunday, these gusts will persist across the Bicol Region, most of Visayas, and Caraga. Disaster risk reduction and management offices are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. The public is reminded that forecasts can change rapidly; the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.

Writer's pick