Apple's Great Escape: India iPhone Exports to US Soar 76% as China Falls Behind

India is fast becoming a linchpin in Apple's global manufacturing strategy. With tensions rising between the US and China, Apple's pivot toward India is accelerating—most clearly seen in a dramatic surge in iPhone exports to the United States.

According to Omdia, iPhone shipments from India to the US soared by 76% in April compared to the same month last year. This increase highlights Apple's escalating 'Made in India' push—a move that analysts expect to face mounting pressure from both Donald Trump's administration and Beijing.

India's Expanding Role in Apple's Supply Chain

The growth in exports underscores India's emergence as a key player in Apple's supply ecosystem. In April, Apple shipped around 3 million iPhones from India to the US, a sharp contrast to the 900,000 units shipped from China during the same period—a 76% drop year-on-year.

Le Xuan Chiew, research manager at Omdia, noted that this trend reflects Apple's broader efforts to shield itself from geopolitical volatility. 'This latest trade war with China is the type of disturbance that Apple has long been trying to prepare itself for,' he said.

Apple began strengthening its Indian supply chain during the pandemic, and by March, India had surpassed China in US-bound iPhone shipments. This shift came even before Trump's 2 April rollout of 'reciprocal tariffs'.

Although the White House exempted iPhones and other consumer electronics from those tariffs on 11 April, the shift toward India has not reversed. In early May, Apple CEO Tim Cook reaffirmed plans for most US-bound iPhones to be made in India.

Projecting iPhone Production for 2025

Despite the exemption from reciprocal tariffs, iPhones imported from China are still subject to a 30% duty under Trump's broader trade policy. By comparison, India and other countries face a more modest 10% rate.

Omdia predicts that Apple's Indian output will eventually meet quarterly US demand of around 20 million units—but not before 2026. Chiew cautioned that India's manufacturing scale remains limited: 'India's manufacturing capacity isn't expected to grow fast enough to take the entirety of US demand. It's still too early.'

He added that Apple has only recently begun shipping the more advanced iPhone 16 Pro from India, signalling the early stages of high-end production capability.

Final Assembly Isn't the Full Picture

Daniel Newman, CEO of research firm Futurum Group, noted that these figures primarily reflect final assembly, not full-scale manufacturing.

'It was actually a very low lift for them to migrate more and more of the final assembly from China to India,' he said, explaining that many sub-assemblies are still produced in China.

Political Resistance From the US and China

As Apple continues its pivot, resistance is mounting on both sides of the globe. Newman warned that this strategy might not sit well with Trump's protectionist stance. 'It's a dangerous game,' he said. Apple's outsourcing doesn't align with the Trump administration's 'America First' manufacturing goals.

On Friday, Trump threatened a fresh 25% tariff on all iPhone shipments, reiterating that iPhones should be made and assembled within the United States, 'not India, or anyplace else.'

Meanwhile, China is pushing back. According to the Times of India, Beijing has begun blocking India's access to high-tech manufacturing tools and skilled labour, in an effort to slow Apple's supplier migration.

India as Apple's Manufacturing 'Life Raft'

Despite these headwinds, India remains central to Apple's long-term manufacturing strategy. Dan Ives, global head of tech research at Wedbush Securities, described India as Apple's 'life raft' amid trade tensions.

'Producing iPhones in the US is a fairy tale in our view and Apple will continue to plough ahead on the India path,' Ives said. 'Cook will look to negotiate with Trump, but India is the focus and not changing.'

A Delicate Balancing Act

As India emerges as Apple's manufacturing stronghold, the tech giant must now navigate a complex geopolitical landscape—balancing protectionist pressures in Washington, supply chain sabotage from Beijing, and capacity limits at home.

The outcome of this shift could define the future of Apple's global production—and set a new precedent for how tech giants operate in an era of fragmented global trade.