Impending Super El Niño: What Could It Mean for Your Next Grocery Bills?

A strengthening super El Niño could increase the cost of some UK groceries in 2027, particularly if poor harvests affect several major food-producing regions at the same time. But the scale of any price rises remains uncertain.

In a briefing published on 12 October 2026, Oxford Economics warned that El Niño, combined with the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole, could threaten agricultural production and livelihoods across parts of Africa. Separately, a science roundtable summary published by the UK Government Office for Science identified potential risks to imported food supplies, including rice, coffee and cocoa.

Which Foods Could Cost More?

Rice is one potential concern. India, Thailand and Vietnam are all major producers that could experience weather-related disruption, reducing yields or exports. If several suppliers are affected at once, UK importers may have fewer alternatives when sourcing rice, potentially putting upward pressure on prices.

Coffee and cocoa face a different risk because global production is concentrated in particular growing regions. Disruption in those areas may be harder to offset by sourcing supplies elsewhere.

The UK government's statement also highlights chocolate's importance in the inflation basket. Chocolate accounts for almost 6% by weight of the food and non-alcoholic beverages basket used by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to measure consumer price inflation, compared with a European average of 2.3%. This measures chocolate's representation in the basket, not the amount prices are expected to rise.

Wheat and other grains could also face disruption if drought reduces exports from Australia and the US. However, their price outlook is less straightforward: the agency's note cites historical research suggesting that global wheat prices have sometimes fallen slightly during El Niño. Some crops could benefit from the weather pattern, too, with South American soybean yields potentially increasing.

One Bad Harvest Could Become a Wider Problem

Food-importing countries can sometimes compensate for a poor harvest in one region by buying from another. That becomes harder if several major production centres suffer losses simultaneously, a risk researchers describe as 'multiple breadbasket failures.'

The Government Office for Science statement warns that such disruptions could leave supply chains vulnerable and make certain foods harder to replace. Commodities such as coffee and cocoa are particularly exposed because their production is concentrated in relatively few countries.

Prices could also rise before harvest losses become clear. Governments anticipating shortages may restrict exports to protect domestic supplies, limiting the amount available to international buyers. The science note cites Indian rice export controls as an example of how anticipated production problems can affect prices.

Disruptions to supplies of ingredients used in food processing, including emulsifiers, could create further pressure on food costs.

The UK is exposed to these overseas pressures because around half of its food is imported, including approximately 80% of its fruit and vegetables, according to the government notice. It warns that supplies of affected commodities are likely to continue, but that reduced global yields could make some products more expensive.

These are risks rather than guarantees of shortages or price rises for particular products. The extent of any impact will depend on the severity and location of crop losses, as well as how international suppliers respond.

Would British Farms Feel It Too?

The effect of El Niño on UK weather is less certain than the potential risks to some overseas growing regions. The UK's varied soil types may provide some protection against changing weather conditions, although this buffer is unlikely to be significant if adverse conditions persist over consecutive years.

Domestic agriculture could also face indirect pressure if weather conditions reduce grass growth and limit silage production. Farmers might then need more imported fodder, potentially affecting the costs of producing dairy, pork and poultry.

The government note stresses that the domestic effects of El Niño remain more uncertain than some of the risks to global food supplies.

The economic risks could be more immediate in parts of Africa. Oxford Economics says food accounts for more than half of the consumer price index basket in Ethiopia and Zambia, meaning food price increases could have a particularly strong effect on inflation in those countries.

The firm expects inflation in most major African markets to be higher in 2027 than in 2026, while noting that several countries have planned disaster-response measures, including strategic food reserves and emergency financing.

What Does This Mean for UK Shoppers?

For British households, the size of any increase in grocery bills remains uncertain. Evidence supporting an estimate that El Niño could double UK food prices is limited, and confidence in that estimate is low. The government's statement noted too that the 2023 El Niño had virtually no discernible effect on UK food prices.

That history does not guarantee that the next event will have a similarly limited impact. The effects will depend on the weather that develops, the harvests that follow, government decisions on exports and other pressures on agricultural production and international trade.