Gina Hinojosa
Gina Hinojosa could become the first Latina governor of Texas and the first Democrat to win the office since 1990 Photo: @ginafortexas/Instagram

Texas Democrat Gina Hinojosa faces Greg Abbott on 3 November in a race that could make her the state's first Latina governor, yet as Abbott runs anti-trans attacks against her, some transgender Texans say she has quietly stopped defending them.

Squeezed From Both Sides

Hinojosa, a five-term state representative from Austin, has built her campaign on public schools and the cost of living, the pocketbook message she believes can win back Latino voters and unseat a governor seeking a record fourth term. Her website leads with those issues. It does not list LGBTQ (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer) rights among her priorities, and that silence has started to cost her.

Meanwhile, Abbott has made Hinojosa's record on gender legislation a centrepiece of his attack strategy. She is pulled in two directions: the right hammers her as too progressive, and the left criticises her for not being vocal enough.

The Attacks Abbott Is Running

Abbott's campaign has leaned hard into culture-war messaging. A 15 September press release branded Hinojosa 'Gender Bender Gina' and claimed she wants men in girls' locker rooms. The campaign also circulated a Lotería card, drawn from the Mexican game of chance, casting her as 'La Payasa', or 'the clown', dressed in costume beside transgender pride flags.

The Houston Chronicle reported that Republican-aligned groups had poured more than $100 million (£75 million) into adverts attacking Hinojosa and Senate candidate James Talarico over transgender inclusion in sports and gender-affirming care for minors. Whether that spending still moves voters is now in doubt. Former Republican House Speaker Dade Phelan told Texas Monthly that the transgender-focused adverts were 'not resonating' and said the spending had not moved the needle in the Senate race.

Where Trans Texans Feel Let Down

The sharper problem for Hinojosa, long an LGBTQ ally in the legislature, comes from her own side. After Abbott's 'Gender Bender' line, she released an advert mocking his focus, saying he would call her 'too woke' while she talks about how 'working people are too broke'. The spot included a pronoun joke that several transgender voters found dismissive.

Speaking to Austin station KXAN, a transgender Austinite who asked to be called Athena said both Hinojosa and Talarico had dampened her enthusiasm to vote. She said she was tired of having her vote moralised, her civil rights and safety treated as 'purity politics'. Jeis Whittaker, a native Texan who is non-binary, told the Houston Chronicle that Republicans use people like them as a wedge issue, adding that on that point they agreed with Hinojosa.

What a Win Would Mean

No Democrat has won the Texas governorship since Ann Richards won re-election in 1994, and Republicans have held the office for three decades. A Hinojosa victory would end that streak and make her the first Latina to govern a state of roughly 30 million people.

Most surveys give Abbott a narrow, single-digit lead, though a few have placed Hinojosa ahead, and an August poll by Emerson College found Hispanic voters favoured her by 17 percentage points. For transgender and Latino Texans, the outcome carries consequences for schools, health care, and civil rights. Hinojosa is betting a tight focus on costs wins. The question is whether the voters she has gone quiet on still turn out for her.