Keir Starmer Faces Backlash Over Claims Immigration Is 'Firmly Under Control'

Keir Starmer stood before Labour MPs on Monday night and delivered a claim that landed awkwardly against the government's own data: immigration, he said, is 'firmly under control'.

The Prime Minister addressed the Parliamentary Labour Party for the first time this year, attempting to rally backbenchers amid mounting criticism over his handling of migration and the cost-of-living crisis. His message was confident. The statistics, however, tell a different story.

'Crime is falling. Immigration is firmly under control,' Starmer told the room. 'Public services are looking up — we're turning the page on austerity.'

The problem is that 2025 saw 41,472 migrants cross the Channel in small boats — the second-highest annual figure since records began in 2018, trailing only 2022's peak of 45,774. That represents a 13 per cent increase on 2024.

The Gap Between Rhetoric and Reality

Starmer's broader economic pitch was more grounded. He pointed to six interest rate cuts since the July 2024 election, with the Bank of England bringing rates down to 3.75 per cent in December — the lowest level in nearly three years.

'Britain will see change and renewal this year,' he told MPs. 'Our country is moving in the right direction.'

Yet the immigration claim contradicts what voters observe daily. The government's 'smash the gangs' strategy has not produced the deterrent effect ministers promised. The UK–France 'one in, one out' returns deal saw just 193 removals against 195 arrivals by mid-December.

What the Numbers Actually Show

Since Labour took office in July 2024, approximately 65,000 migrants have crossed the Channel — an average of 118 arrivals per day. The first small boat of 2026 reached UK shores in sub-zero temperatures just days into the new year.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage responded: 'Smash the gangs is a complete disaster. One in, one out is a farce.'

The Political Calculation

Starmer's PLP address appeared designed to shore up confidence among anxious backbenchers rather than address the immigration data directly.

'Because of the decisions we've made in the budget, unlike any of our opponents, we have a plan to support people directly with the cost of living,' he said. 'Which we all know is the biggest issue in the lives of working people right now.'

Whether voters accept that framing, given that nearly 200,000 people have crossed the Channel since 2018, remains the central political question facing his government.

Starmer emphasised Labour's purported distinction from Conservative predecessors, particularly regarding cost-of-living support. 'Because of the decisions we've made in the budget, unlike any of our opponents, we have a plan to support people directly with the cost of living,' he insisted. 'Which we all know is the biggest issue in the lives of working people right now.' This claim carried a hint of desperation—an appeal to voters to judge Labour on intent rather than measurable outcomes.

Political Rhetoric vs Public Perception

The briefing's true significance lies not in what Starmer said, but in what his words reveal about Labour's strategic communications challenge. UK Ministers appear determined to characterise their administration's record as broadly successful, even as voters consistently show they see matters differently.

Immigration remains a deeply sensitive issue for voters across demographic and political lines, and public confidence in Government management has fractured significantly. By attempting to assert control over immigration with such confidence, Starmer risks further alienating voters who observe the contradictions daily. The Home Office cannot credibly claim immigration is 'firmly under control' whilst record-breaking Channel crossings persist month after month.

Critics argue that describing immigration as 'firmly under control' risks stretching credibility. Legal battles over offshore processing and removals continue, while humanitarian groups and local authorities warn that accommodation systems remain severely strained. For voters who see migration as one of the defining issues of the moment, the Prime Minister's language felt disconnected from the evidence.