Keir Starmer Faces Leadership Crisis: Why 2026 Could End His Premiership Early

Sir Keir Starmer enters 2026 amid a deepening leadership crisis, with speculation rife that the year could mark the end of his premiership. Recent polls show his approval ratings at historic lows, with Labour trailing behind Reform UK in national surveys. Key challenges include the upcoming May devolved and local elections, internal party jostling for position, and contentious policy reforms.

As of 31 December 2025, Downing Street is planning a January reset to refocus on core priorities, but doubts persist over whether it can reverse the downward trajectory.

Electoral Hurdles Loom

The pivotal date is 7 May 2026, when elections take place for the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd, and numerous local authorities across England, including London councils. In Wales, where Labour holds power at both levels, the party risks losing control of the Senedd for the first time since 1999, facing stiff competition from Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.

Scotland presents a difficult battleground, where polls indicate Labour's UK government is less popular than the SNP. In London, threats from the Greens and independents could erode Labour's holdings in several boroughs. Experts have warned of a potential 'almighty shellacking' that might trigger immediate crisis talks.

Starmer's team intends to emphasise cost-of-living improvements ahead of the polls, but union leaders like Unite's Sharon Graham have demanded a shift from 'austerity-lite' policies, cautioning that failing to prioritise workers could sow 'the seeds of its own destruction'.

Internal Party Tensions and Succession Talk

Whispers of replacement campaigns are intensifying in Westminster. A senior Labour figure admitted, 'I wouldn't pretend campaigning to replace him isn't going on.' Potential successors include Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, each bringing distinct appeal.

The think tank Labour Together has surveyed party members on alternative candidates, signalling preparations for change. Supporters urge holding nerve, noting any new leader would face the same issues, including flatlining living standards.

Discontent also arises from policy decisions like SEND reforms, which could spark backbench rebellion. Managing foreign affairs, particularly US relations under Trump, further strains the administration.

Public Sentiment and Media Scrutiny

Opinion polls depict a bleak outlook: Starmer's net approval rating is -54, with only 18 per cent favourable opinions. Labour hovers at 20 per cent, behind Reform UK. Social media amplifies discontent; verified commentator Andrew Neil stated on X that Starmer is on a 'one-way ticket to the knacker's yard in 2026'.

Media critics label the government rudderless and accuse it of evading scrutiny through anti-democratic measures. As 2026 dawns on 31 December 2025, Sir Keir Starmer's premiership hangs in the balance amid unprecedented unpopularity. Recent YouGov surveys show only 18% of Britons view him favourably, with even a majority of 2024 Labour voters now disapproving of his performance. Half the public believes he will be replaced by year's end, according to Sky News polling.

Trade union leaders, including TUC's Paul Nowak, have urged decisive action on living costs to halt Reform UK's advance, while Unite's Sharon Graham criticised the government's direction as distracted by succession speculation.

No clear challenger has emerged—Wes Streeting remains the most mentioned, though he denies ambition—leaving Starmer to fight on inherited constraints. Yet with growth stubbornly low and voter patience thin, the prime minister's planned January relaunch must deliver tangible progress, or the May electoral reckoning could prove decisive.