Mystery Trader Turns $34k to $400,000 After Trump's Venezuela Raid

It sounds like a plot twist straight from a financial thriller: a solitary figure places a risky bet moments before a geopolitical explosion, walking away with a fortune while the rest of the world reels from the news. However, this was no movie script.

Less than five hours before nighttime explosions rocked the Venezuelan capital of Caracas, an unknown trader doubled down on bets that Nicolás Maduro would soon be out as the country's leader. The timing was impeccable, almost too perfect, as the wagers on Polymarket, a popular crypto-based betting platform, netted the trader more than £316,000 ($400,000) and fuelled suspicions that someone used inside knowledge of the closely held US operation to make a quick profit.

Insider Trading in the 'Wild West' of Crypto Betting

The timing was impeccable, almost too perfect, as the wagers on Polymarket, a popular crypto-based betting platform, netted the trader more than £316,000 ($400,000). This represents a 12-fold return on investment—and fueled suspicions that someone used inside knowledge of the closely held US operation to make a quick profit.

Insider trading is illegal in the stock market, and regulators routinely monitor suspicious trades ahead of big corporate news so they can prosecute insiders who attempt to enrich themselves using nonpublic information.

However, the digital frontier is far wilder. There are fewer safeguards in place to prevent people from exploiting their inside knowledge on Polymarket. The site allows users to bet on a variety of future events, ranging from President Trump's political appointments to this year's World Cup to which characters would die in the recent season of Stranger Things.

The lack of robust oversight on these prediction markets means that those with clearance on sensitive government operations might theoretically monetise that data with little fear of immediate consequence.

How They Built Their Position Before the Attack

The anonymous user created an account last month and placed an initial bet on 27 December, buying £76 ($96) worth of contracts that would pay off if the US invaded Venezuela by 31 January, Polymarket data shows.

The person ramped up bets over the next week, sticking to a handful of similar contracts, as tensions mounted between Washington and Caracas. The trader focused bets on contracts that would pay out if Maduro would no longer be Venezuela's leader by 31 January, when that still seemed like a long shot to the general public.

The most damning piece of evidence in the eyes of sceptics is the final timestamp. The trader's final bet came at 9:58 p.m. ET on Friday, shortly before President Trump ordered the military to move forward.

Such contracts were priced at just 8 cents apiece, implying that Polymarket users saw only an 8 per cent probability of the Venezuelan strongman losing power this month, the platform's data shows. This low probability suggests the market at large was completely unaware of the imminent strike.

Several hours later, news broke of the US operation to capture Maduro, and the contracts shot up in value. In the end, the trader earned nearly £324,000 ($410,000) in profit on about £27,000 ($34,000) worth of wagers.

The trader placed more than half the total wager value the evening before the attack, transforming a speculative gamble into a massive, controversial windfall.