Reform UK Surge: Nigel Farage Projected to Oust 326 Labour MPs in Shock New Poll

The political establishment woke to a startling revelation on Tuesday: Nigel Farage's Reform UK now commands enough support to secure a substantial parliamentary majority if an election were held tomorrow. A new More in Common poll of 16,000 people paints a picture of a nation in political upheaval, with traditional Labour strongholds crumbling and Westminster's balance of power tilting decisively to the right.

The numbers are stark. Reform UK would win 381 seats with just 31% of the vote, turning a minority of ballots into a commanding 115-seat majority. Meanwhile, Labour, which swept to office with confidence just 18 months ago, would be reduced to 85 MPs. That represents a loss of 326 seats, a collapse approaching the party's lowest parliamentary presence in the modern era.

The Tactical Voting Wildcard

Luke Tryl, director of More in Common UK, presented the findings with careful qualification. 'Based on polling since the budget, it suggests that in an election tomorrow, Reform could hope to secure a substantial three-figure majority,' he explained. 'Meanwhile, disillusioned progressives are putting the Greens within shouting distance of many more gains from Labour'.

Yet Tryl sounded a note of caution that analysts say could prove crucial. For the first time, More in Common's research has systematically examined tactical voting, where voters abandon their preferred party to block a candidate they dislike. The implications are profound. If tactical voting reached the levels seen in constituencies such as Caerphilly, left-leaning parties could feasibly deny Reform an overall majority and construct a 'rainbow coalition' instead.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, occupy an unusual position. Though they would lose a further 50 seats from their already decimated 2024 tally, this projection actually represents an improvement. For the first time in 12 months, their seat count has begun to stabilise, suggesting that Kemi Badenoch's leadership may be consolidating support in traditional 'Blue Wall' constituencies.

The Liberal Democrats face a particularly brutal reckoning, with half their current MPs projected to lose their seats, while the Greens would more than double their presence from four to nine.

Labour's Unravelling Crisis

Labour begins 2026 in its weakest position since modern polling began. Electoral Calculus places the party at just 18.5%m — a historic low. Yet Sir Keir Starmer, when confronted with these grim figures on the BBC, remained defiant. 'I will be sitting in this seat by 2027,' he told Laura Kuenssberg in Downing Street, referencing the government's five-year term.

The prime minister acknowledged palpable frustration among voters and even within his own backbenches. 'I'm not surprised that people are frustrated. I completely get that,' he said. He traced the malaise to deeper, long-term failures. 'Since the crash of '08, most people haven't seen their living standards improve. They've seen their public services move in the wrong direction, and they've lost trust in politics'.

Starmer insisted his administration operates according to a different playbook. 'I said we'd do it in a serious way with long-term measures that would actually benefit the country — not slogans, not easy answers,' he stated. 'Not all the things that failed so miserably over the last 14 years under the previous Government'.

Yet Tryl's final observation may prove most prescient. Despite Reform's apparent strength, 'the path to the next general election is still far from known'. With years separating today's poll from the next formal ballot, the political landscape could shift dramatically. The momentum, it seems, remains in motion.