Small Boat Crisis: Keir Starmer Accused Of 'Pouring Petrol' On Channel Crossings

As the new year dawns, Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a challenging reality that threatens to derail his administration's agenda for 2026.

The government has been warned that illegal crossings across the English Channel are likely to increase, rather than slow down. This continues a problem that caused Labour ongoing pressure last year.

Experts believe the number of people arriving in small boats will rise over the next 12 months. This is a setback for the Prime Minister, who has put strong emphasis on his pledge to tackle people-smuggling gangs and improve control of the UK's borders.

Data released for the full year of 2025 paints a worrying picture, with a staggering 41,472 migrants having made the perilous journey across the Dover Strait. This figure stands as the second-highest annual total on record, underscoring the sheer scale of the challenge facing the Home Office.

Although officials noted a brief pause in activity with zero crossings recorded on New Year's Eve, this lull has done little to mask the broader trend of failure. The final tally for 2025 finished just 9 per cent below the all-time record of 45,774 set in 2022, suggesting that current deterrents are having a negligible impact.

Labour's 'Gimmicks' Blamed For Fuelling The Small Boat Crisis

Critics have wasted no time in attributing this continued surge to what they describe as the government's superficial and ineffective policy decisions. Rob Bates, research director at the Centre for Migration Control, issued a withering assessment of Labour's performance, labelling their strategies as mere 'gimmicks' that have done nothing to stem the tide.

Bates specifically targeted the much-touted 'one in, one out' arrangement with France, dismissing it as a 'complete failure' that has not delivered the promised reduction in numbers. He told GB News that, far from seeing a decline, arrivals are 'likely to go up' as the new year unfolds.

The core of the issue, according to Bates, lies in the government's refusal to confront the legal hurdles posed by the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). He argued that the ECHR effectively prevents the removal of individuals to their home countries, creating a bottleneck that encourages more crossings.

'The Labour Party isn't going anywhere near having the conversation about leaving the ECHR,' Bates remarked, highlighting a fundamental ideological red line for the government. He added that the administration's hope of renegotiating the agreement with nearly 50 other nations is 'pie in the sky thinking' and legally unworkable.

The Centre for Migration Control took to social media to amplify their condemnation, posting a sharp critique on X. Their statement read: 'The Labour Government has poured petrol on the small boats crisis. Channel crossings are up, removals are down, and use of hotels increasing. Failure.'

Political Rivals Seize On Escalating Small Boat Crisis

The political response was quick, with Reform UK leader Nigel Farage stepping up his criticism of the Prime Minister's strategy. Farage branded the government's flagship plan to dismantle smuggling networks as 'a complete disaster', arguing that the operational reality on the ground is a 'farce'.

'The numbers coming over are huge,' Farage stated, warning of the long-term social implications of such rapid, uncontrolled migration. He expressed particular concern regarding the demographic profile of those arriving, adding, 'Many of the young men that have arrived last year will do us great harm.'

Inside the government, there is a tacit acknowledgement that progress has been agonisingly slow. Martin Hewitt, the UK's Border Security Commander, admitted to MPs in October that the 2025 arrival figures were 'frustrating', though he insisted that dismantling established smuggling routes was 'always going to take time'.

In a bid to regain control, the government passed the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Act in December, granting law enforcement agencies enhanced, counter-terror style powers to target the gangs orchestrating the boats. This legislative move is intended to be the backbone of Starmer's enforcement strategy moving forward.

Complementing these tougher enforcement measures, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced a sweeping package of reforms in November, which she described as 'the most significant changes to our asylum system in modern times'. These changes are designed to make the UK a far less attractive destination for economic migrants.

Drawing inspiration from the tough Danish model, the new rules will replace permanent refuge with temporary status, subject to rigorous reviews every 30 months. Furthermore, refugees will now face a mandatory 20-year wait before they can apply for permanent settlement, a drastic increase from the previous five-year threshold.