'Sunrise on the Reaping' Puts Lionsgate to the Test After a String of Box Office Flops

Lionsgate Studios is under significant pressure as it bets on The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping to reverse a troubling trend of poor theatrical performance that has affected its motion picture segment throughout fiscal 2025.

The studio's third-quarter results reveal the urgency behind the 20 November 2026 release. Motion picture revenue for the quarter ending 31 December 2024 declined to £136 million ($173 million), down from £158 million ($201 million) in the same period last year.

Theatrical performance has been notably weak. The company's earnings report shows theatrical revenue decreasing across recent quarters, with Lionsgate openly acknowledging challenges with its cinema releases.

'Our motion picture segment continues to face headwinds in theatrical performance,' the Q3 earnings statement noted, underscoring the importance of the Hunger Games franchise revival.

Franchise Lifeline

Sunrise on the Reaping is more than just another prequel. Set 24 years before the original The Hunger Games and 40 years after The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, the film returns to District 12 for the 50th Hunger Games, known as the Second Quarter Quell.

Director Francis Lawrence is returning to helm the project, working from Suzanne Collins' novel of the same name. The franchise previously generated over £2.3 billion ($3 billion) globally across four films between 2012 and 2015.

However, 2023's The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes underperformed expectations, earning £265 million ($348 million) worldwide against a reported £77 million ($100 million) budget. The prequel opened significantly below the theatrical performance of the original trilogy.

Mounting Financial Pressure

Lionsgate's struggles extend beyond the Hunger Games franchise. The studio's second-quarter results showed adjusted EBITDA for the motion picture segment declining to negative £14 million (negative $18 million).

The company has increasingly shifted focus towards streaming and television production as theatrical revenues falter. Motion Picture Group revenue dropped 21 per cent year-on-year in Q2, with management citing 'timing of releases and theatrical performance' as key factors.

This shift has placed enormous pressure on Sunrise on the Reaping to succeed theatrically. The studio needs a box office hit to justify ongoing investment in big-budget franchise films and to restore confidence among investors who are increasingly wary of cinema's post-pandemic recovery.

High Stakes for 2026

The 2026 release has become a referendum on Lionsgate's theatrical strategy. Yesterday's trailer launch marks a crucial milestone, with just over a year remaining until the film's release on 20 November 2026.

Lionsgate has committed significant resources to the project, relying on Collins' proven storytelling and Lawrence's directorial track record. Yet, as the release approaches, pressure is mounting.

Production wrapped earlier this year, with Lionsgate fast-tracking the film to capitalise on remaining franchise goodwill. The accelerated timeline reflects the studio's desperation to deliver a theatrical success before investor patience runs out.

The competitive landscape has intensified since the original trilogy's heyday. Lionsgate must contend with franchise fatigue, shifting viewing habits, and a crowded 2026 theatrical calendar featuring major releases from rival studios.

Yesterday's trailer generated immediate buzz on social media, but industry observers remain cautious. Initial reactions cannot predict box office performance in an increasingly unpredictable market.

For Lionsgate, Sunrise on the Reaping is a last-ditch effort to prove the franchise's theatrical viability. After consecutive underperforming releases in 2024 and 2025, the studio cannot afford another franchise misfire.

The November 2026 release will ultimately determine whether The Hunger Games can still command box office dominance or if Lionsgate's theatrical ambitions will continue to starve.