promo code
Source: Canva

There's a small ritual almost every online shopper knows: you reach the checkout page, spot the little 'Promo code' box, and pause.

Maybe you open a new tab to hunt around. Maybe you just type in a guess and hope for the best.

To find out whether those guesses ever work, HotDeals is a verified coupon platform where real users test promo codes so shoppers don't have to. The data team analysed 55,637 real, verified coupon codes collected across thousands of online stores.

The takeaway? Coupon codes are far less random than they seem.

A surprisingly small set of naming patterns accounts for a meaningful share of working discount codes online. So if you're staring at an empty promo box with nothing to lose, these are statistically the codes most likely to do something.

What the Data Shows

After analysing all 55,637 codes, three major patterns stood out.

1. 'WELCOME' Dominates Everything

Codes built around WELCOME — especially those aimed at first-time shoppers — were by far the most common pattern in the dataset.

Most common examples:

  • WELCOME10
  • WELCOME15
  • WELCOME20
  • WELCOME5
  • WELCOME
  • WELCOMEBACK

Among them, WELCOME10 appeared 1,732 times, accounting for 3.11% of every code analysed— more than twice as common as nearly any other individual code.

Taken together, the entire 'WELCOME' family sits in a category of its own.

2. 'SAVE' Codes Are the Universal Backup

The second major pattern centered around SAVE:

  • SAVE10
  • SAVE15
  • SAVE20
  • SAVE5

These are simple, generic, brand-agnostic codes used by retailers of every size.

If a store runs standard percentage discounts, there's a good chance some variation of SAVE exists behind the scenes.

3. The Number '10' Appears Everywhere

One pattern showed up across almost every naming style:

10% off is the default internet discount.

Whether attached to:

  • WELCOME10
  • SAVE10
  • 10OFF
  • THANKYOU10
  • NEW10
  • EXTRA10
  • FIRST10
  • CART10
  • TAKE10
  • GET10

...the number 10 consistently appeared more than any other discount value.

If you only try one number, statistically, 10 is the best first guess.

The 20 Codes to Try First

Ranked by how often each one appeared across all 55,637 codes:

RankCodeTimes SeenShare of All Codes
1WELCOME101,7323.11%
2WELCOME156401.15%
3SAVE106301.13%
4WELCOME4870.88%
510OFF2980.54%
6WELCOME202870.52%
7SAVE152530.45%
8SAVE202430.44%
9WELCOME52280.41%
10THANKYOU102240.40%
11NEW102090.38%
1215OFF1800.32%
13SAVE51610.29%
14HONEY101600.29%
15EXTRA101320.24%
16THANKYOU1250.22%
17FIRST101220.22%
18CART101200.22%
19TAKE101190.21%
20WELCOMEBACK1100.20%

(GET10 lands just outside the top 20 at 104 appearances — worth a shot too.)

How to Actually Use These Codes

Start With Email Signup Offers

Many WELCOME-style codes activate immediately after signing up for a store newsletter.

In practice, spending 30 seconds entering an email address often works better than random guessing.

Match the Code to the Shopping Situation

Different naming styles tend to match different customer moments.

New customer?

Try:

  • WELCOME10
  • NEW10
  • FIRST10

Returning after a long break?

Try:

  • WELCOMEBACK

About to abandon your cart?

Try:

  • CART10

Retailers often structure promotions around these exact behaviors.

Swap the Number, Keep the Pattern

If:

  • SAVE10 doesn't work

...it's logical to try:

  • SAVE15
  • SAVE20

The same pattern applies to WELCOME codes as well.

Retailers frequently reuse the same naming structure across multiple discount tiers.

Don't Spend Forever Testing Codes

These patterns improve your odds — they do not guarantee success.

Trying two or three likely options makes sense.

Trying ten probably doesn't.

Important Caveats

A code being common does not mean it works universally.

Many promo codes are:

  • retailer-specific
  • region-specific
  • time-limited
  • tied to customer accounts or email lists

What this analysis provides is not a guaranteed shortcut — it's a statistically informed starting point.

The exact frequencies above represent a snapshot of the dataset at the time of analysis. Individual codes change constantly, but the broader trends — especially the dominance of welcome offers and 10%-off discounts — have remained remarkably stable over time.

Final Takeaway

Most promo code guessing feels random.

The data suggests it isn't.

A relatively small group of code patterns appears repeatedly across thousands of stores, especially:

  • WELCOME-based offers
  • SAVE-based offers
  • 10%-off discounts

So the next time you hit a checkout page with an empty promo box, you'll at least have a ranked, evidence-based shortlist instead of a complete shot in the dark.

About This Analysis

The figures above come from HotDeals' internal analysis of 55,637 verified promo codes collected and maintained in-house across thousands of online retailers. The breakdown is updated as the dataset continues to grow.