Vice President JD Vance
President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance walk along the West Colonnade, Friday, July 18, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok) Wikimedia Commons

There's an early favourite in the betting markets for the 2028 US Presidential Election, and it's not from the Democratic Party.

In a crypto-based prediction market platform, Polymarket, current US Vice President JD Vance takes an early lead at 31% odds. Meaning, the market currently believes Vance has a 31% chance of winning. However, the amount of money trading on Vance's win is relatively lower than the others in the list.

JD Vance Likely to Win as President in 2028, Says Betting Markets

At £2.6M ($3.56M) volume, with most votes cast as 'Yes', Vance comes off as #1 in the list. He is followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom, who is also an early favourite to be the Democratic nominee in the elections.

Vance, as the clear market favourite, signals strong GOP continuity, likely due to the favourable performance of the current administration for now. The post-Trump coalition appeal will remain stronger, and it's Vance's advantage over other possible GOP nominees, like Trump Jr.

However, the VP previously said it's not a priority at the moment, as Republicans are focused on securing wins in the midterm elections next year.

Looking at the data, Vance's trading volume is lower than that of Elon Musk and LeBron James, at £7.8M ($10.5M) and £15.1M ($20.4M), respectively. This usually means a lot of people are trading for Musk and James, but the odds are not in their favour, since both are at 1%.

Gavin Newsom Leads the Democrats

At 18%, Newsom leads the Democrats in the list. This puts him well ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8%), who was the second-favourite Democratic nominee for the elections.

Gavin Newsom
Governor Gavin Newsom speaking directly to the American People about shocking moment in the nation's leadership. Youtube/ClarityReignsHere

While there were rumours that former VP Kamala Harris would return to the race, she's third in the list of Democrats and fourth overall at 4% odds.

Newsom's boost to second place is mainly due to his gubernatorial leadership in California, where big tech is, like Silicon Valley's Apple. This means businesses, especially tech companies looking into AI expansion, would view his probable administration as 'friendly' for their businesses.

At the same time, California is also a huge state to run. Managing this and being media-ready, proven by his attendance at international conferences, makes him good for the image of the United States.

Now, the surprising part of the list is AOC's placement at third. As a politician who is not positioned to be a presidential frontrunner, gaining the market's trust this early would be a great leverage should she run for the presidency in the future.

It's worth noting, though, that AOC's audience is mostly online. Meaning, there is strong online enthusiasm in the way she responds to the current state of the country using her social media accounts.

Celebrities Listed in 2028 Presidential Race

Some traders, however, are not placing their trust again in politicians and instead, are making a bet on celebrities they think could lead the country.

As previously mentioned, NBA player LeBron gains the upper hand when it comes to trading volume. But at 1% odds, it means people are only making him visible in the list, but not confident enough to cast their vote for him.

Others in the list were Kim Kardashian and The Rock. All are between 0.9-2% odds. People are likely betting on memes, but don't expect them to win.

For now, there are no standard-bearers for both parties yet. But the market suggests a post-Trump Republican era still looks favourable, and Vance is the strongest successor.

Writer's Pick