Gavin Newsom Leads 2028 Democratic Presidential Race With 37% Win Odds, While Ex-VP Harris Trails at 5%

California Governor Gavin Newsom is the current favourite for the Democratic Party's 2028 presidential nomination, with 36% odds.

According to Polymarket, Newsom leads well ahead of rivals, including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11%. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, rumoured to be stepping back from the 2028 race, is third at 4.7%, followed closely by Pete Buttigieg, J.B. Pritzker and Mark Kelly.

Why Newsom is Dems' Favourite

Newsom has implemented large-scale state policy changes likely to appeal to a broad range of Democratic voters, beginning with housing and affordability. In his pledge to 'solve the housing crisis in California', he eased building restrictions, increasing housing supply and improving affordability. Education has also been a key focus, with graduation rates reaching their highest in eight years under his leadership, attracting greater investment in literacy and career readiness.

He positions himself in stark contrast to President Trump, opposing the former president's anti-immigration policies and declaring Immigrant Heritage Month 2025. Newsom has emphasised the importance of immigrants in California and pushed back against nationwide ICE crackdowns.

On climate policy, Newsom has engaged in international partnerships at COP30, aiming to establish California as a global leader in environmental efforts, with a focus on carbon neutrality and clean energy growth — unlike Trump, who avoided climate conferences.

Newsom's appeal stems not only from his vocal opposition to the federal administration and progressive policies but also from his protection of the interests of all Californians, regardless of origin or race — a contrast to Trump and the GOP, who risk alienating these groups.

The Contenders: Harris Still in Line

Following her loss to Trump in the 2024 US presidential election, Kamala Harris remains in contention. She holds nearly 5% odds of securing the Democratic nomination, though Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads the non-governor field at 11%. Other governors, such as Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro, are also attracting attention from Democratic voters.

Surprisingly, several celebrities appear in predictive markets, albeit with less than 1% odds. Names include LeBron James, Mr. Beast, Oprah Winfrey and Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson.

Former President Barack Obama remains a point of reference, while Zohran Mamdani emerges as a rising star in the polls. Although Mamdani has yet to outline a detailed campaign agenda, progressive groups are expected to monitor his ascent closely next year.

What the Market Shows

The poll is not definitive, and Newsom has yet to confirm whether he intends to seek the Democratic nomination for the 2028 US presidential election. However, the high volume of trading suggests strong confidence among investors and political observers, a factor the party may also weigh when selecting its nominee.

Those backing Newsom's potential presidential run will continue to watch whether he can sustain momentum in California while addressing national issues under the Trump administration.