Avatar: Fire and Ash's $88M Opening Raises Doubts Over Cameron's Plans for Next Movies

James Cameron's return to Pandora hasn't quite ignited the box office inferno Disney was hoping for.

Avatar: Fire and Ash opened to $88 million (£69 million) domestically over the weekend, a respectable figure for most films but a concerning drop for a franchise that's accustomed to shattering records. The third instalment fell well short of industry expectations, which had pegged the opening between $100 million and $125 million (£78 million to £98 million).

According to The Hollywood Reporter, the film's earnings came in on 'the lower end of expectations', much lower than the earlier instalments.

To put that in perspective, the original Avatar debuted to $77 million (£60 million) in 2009, but that's equivalent to $115 million (£90 million) in today's dollars, adjusted for inflation. Avatar: The Way of Water launched with $134 million (£105 million) in 2022. Fire and Ash represents the weakest domestic opening of the trilogy.

International Markets Carry the Weight

Globally, the picture looks brighter. The film grossed $345 million (£269 million) worldwide, with international markets accounting for $257 million (£200 million). That's the second-best global opening of any Hollywood film in 2025, trailing only Disney's Zootopia 2.

China proved particularly strong, with a $57.6 million (£45 million) opening that surpassed both previous Avatar films in that market.

Cameron has repeatedly stated in earlier interviews that Fire and Ash's performance will determine whether Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 will be produced. Both movies are said to be already written, but neither has been greenlit.

Fortune reported that the stakes couldn't be higher for the franchise's future.

'You can't exactly create the world of Pandora on the cheap,' Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for Comscore, told Fortune. 'If you're going to have a 3D movie, an epic film that's three hours and 17 minutes, it's a huge buy-in of money, time, resources.'

Why Audiences Stayed Away

Several factors likely contributed to the softer-than-expected opening. The three-year gap between films, compared to the 13-year wait between Avatar and The Way of Water, may have reduced pent-up demand. Some analysts noted that Fire and Ash offers less technological innovation than its predecessors, which had been major selling points. At over three hours, the runtime limits the number of daily showings that cinemas can schedule.

There's also the reality that around 5.2 million domestic cinemagoers showed up for Fire and Ash's opening weekend, compared to 8.7 million for The Way of Water in 2022. That's a massive 40 per cent decline in audience turnout.

Avatar's Secret Weapon: Staying Power

Still, Avatar films have never been about explosive openings. They're famous for their staying power. The original earned just $77 million (£60 million) in its first weekend but stayed in cinemas for nearly a year, ultimately grossing $2.7 billion (£2.1 billion) globally. The franchise thrives on word of mouth and repeat viewings.

Fire and Ash has some advantages working in its favour. Audiences awarded it an A CinemaScore, matching the previous films. Rotten Tomatoes reported audience scores of 77 per cent, suggesting decent word of mouth. Premium formats accounted for 66 per cent of the weekend total, showing strong demand for the full theatrical experience that's become synonymous with Cameron's vision of Pandora.

Christmas Could Save the Sequel

The Christmas holiday period should provide ample opportunity for the film to build momentum. With families on break and limited competition, Fire and Ash could achieve the kind of multiple that made its predecessors box office legends. A strong five or six times multiplier would push the film well past $400 million (£312 million) domestically and towards $2 billion (£1.56 billion) globally.

Fire and Ash didn't have the weekend entirely to itself. Angel Studios' animated biblical epic David earned $22 million (£17 million) for second place, whilst Lionsgate's The Housemaid with Sydney Sweeney took third with $19 million (£15 million). The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants rounded out the newcomers with $16 million (£12.5 million).

Disney needs Fire and Ash to demonstrate the kind of legs that turned its predecessors into cultural phenomena. Anything less, and Cameron's grand vision of a five-film saga exploring every corner of Pandora might never happen.