Geno Smith Tipped to Lead Seahawks to Super Bowl in ESPN's 'Outrageous' 2026 Forecast

The Seattle Seahawks have emerged as the overwhelming favourites to win Super Bowl LX, according to ESPN's Football Power Index, in a turn that has stunned the NFL world. With a 14-3 record and the NFC's top seed, the Seahawks, led by quarterback Geno Smith, have a 20 per cent chance of lifting the trophy in February, ahead of the Denver Broncos at 14 per cent and the Los Angeles Rams at 13.8 per cent.

This forecast comes after a season where the team defied preseason odds of 60-1. As of 7 January 2026, the Seahawks are set to enter the playoffs with a bye, positioning them strongly for a deep run.

The FPI Breakdown

ESPN's FPI is a predictive model that runs thousands of simulations to forecast outcomes. For the Seahawks, it projects a 58.4 per cent chance of reaching the NFC championship. The model factors in team strength, schedule, and performance metrics. This year, the Seahawks dominated the NFC West, beating rivals like the 49ers in their final game.

Preseason predictions had them as longshots, but key moves, including Smith's solid play and new coordinator Klint Kubiak, turned the tide. Smith, who signed a three-year extension in December, threw for 3,025 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, with a QBR of 34.2. While not stellar, his leadership has been key in close games.

The defence, bolstered by signings, has been the real star, allowing the fewest points in the league. The FPI's forecast has the Seahawks as favourites, hardly a surprise given their form.

Geno Smith's Resurgence

At 35, Geno Smith has had a rollercoaster career, but in 2025, he solidified his role as the Seahawks' leader. His contract extension, worth £49.3 million ($66.5 million), reflects the team's confidence. Smith's base salary for 2026 is £19.6 million ($26.5 million).

Despite the interceptions, he managed crucial drives, including a game-winning one against the Rams. Fans have mixed views, but his experience is seen as a plus for the playoffs. The team also added talent like Cooper Kupp, enhancing the offence.

Smith's ability to manage the game has been praised, even if his stats don't sparkle. With the Super Bowl in sight, Smith's performance will be crucial in high-stakes matches against tough opponents like the Eagles or Panthers.

Reactions and Odds

The prediction has sparked buzz on social media. On X, one user posted, 'The Seahawks are winning the Superbowl this year and I'm done pretending we're not watching greatness.'

Another said, 'Seahawks are a lock to win the Super Bowl and anything less will be the greatest failure in NFL history.'

Betting odds have shifted, with the Seahawks at +330, implying a 23.8 per cent chance. Polymarket has them at 19 per cent. While some see it as outrageous, others point to the team's form.

As the playoffs begin, the Seahawks await their divisional opponent, with the bye giving them rest. The FPI's forecast, while bold, is based on data, but the NFL is unpredictable. The team will need Smith to reduce errors and the defence to maintain its form to make the Seahawks Super Bowl prediction a reality.

With the playoffs looming, analysts note the Seahawks' balanced roster and coaching stability give them a genuine edge over flashier AFC contenders like the Broncos.