Jesus Christ's Second Coming: Punters To Win 5,700% If Messiah Returns After 'Dumbest' Bet Hits

A controversial prediction market has drawn millions in wagers, blurring the line between faith, satire and speculative gambling.

One of humanity's oldest beliefs has become the subject of one of the internet's strangest wagers.

Online gamblers are staking real money on whether Jesus Christ will return before the end of 2026, lured by potential payouts exceeding 5,700%.

The bets are not being placed in churches or private forums, but on blockchain-based prediction platforms where users trade probabilities on real-world events.

What some dismiss as absurd has nonetheless attracted millions in wagers, raising serious questions about how far online betting and belief can stretch.

Unusual Bet Captures Global Attention

The wager is hosted on Polymarket, a decentralised prediction market built on the Polygon blockchain that allows users to buy shares in yes-or-no outcomes. Launched in 2020, the platform has become known for high-profile contracts ranging from presidential elections to oddball propositions.

The contract initially asked, 'Will Jesus Christ Return in 2025?' before rolling over to a new market for 2026. During 2025, bettors staked around £2.5 million on the outcome, as reported by the Daily Star.

Prices on Polymarket reflect probability. A higher price suggests traders believe an event is more likely to happen. Despite widespread scepticism, the implied chance of Jesus Christ returning stayed above 3% for much of 2025. The platform marked the market as 'No' on 1 January 2026, even though no such event occurred.

The bet has been labelled bizarre by some users, with one online comment describing it as 'the dumbest market I've ever seen.' Others questioned how such a religious event could ever be verified. Polymarket stated that resolution would rely on a 'consensus of credible sources,' a phrase that has drawn scrutiny from legal and gambling observers.

How the Odds Translate Into Huge Potential Returns

As of early January 2026, the odds of Jesus Christ returning before the end of the year stand at about 2%. That low probability drives the payout. A triumphant 'Yes' bet would return more than 5,700%, making it one of the highest-paying contracts on the platform.

By contrast, those who bet 'No' during 2025 saw modest but steady gains. Bettors who took that position around Easter, when interest peaked, earned an annualised return of roughly 5.5% before fees. That performance exceeded returns from traditionally low-risk assets such as US Treasury bills, which are often treated as a baseline for safe investment.

These dynamics attracted different types of gamblers. Some chased the long odds of a dramatic payout, while others treated the 'No' option as a low-risk way to earn predictable returns.

Experts React to Faith-Based Gambling

Academics say the behaviour fits familiar patterns. John Holden, an associate professor of business law and ethics at Indiana University's Kelley School of Business, said the participation did not surprise him. Holden explained that 'people buy lottery tickets despite astronomical odds,' drawing a comparison with everyday gambling habits.

Not all experts are convinced that such markets serve a useful purpose. Speaking to the Los Angeles Times, Melinda Roth, an associate professor at Washington and Lee School of Law, criticised the contract's existence. Roth said 'a market like this is distracting' and added that it 'diminishes the value of actual prediction markets that provide insights and useful information.'

Industry analysts note that platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi often follow online trends, offering contracts that blur the line between serious forecasting and entertainment.

What Happens Next as Betting Shifts To 2026

With the 2025 market settled, attention has turned fully to 2026. The current contract asks whether Jesus Christ will return by 31 December, with odds still reflecting substantial doubt. A 'Yes' outcome would require broad agreement among recognised global institutions and news organisations.

Despite long odds, interest remains steady. The market continues to spark debate about faith, probability and the role of prediction platforms, with no clear consensus on where those boundaries should lie.